IMF Executive Board Completes the Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangements and Approves US$13.7 Million Disbursement for Seychelles
IMF News, June 16, 2025
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- Published: June 16, 2025
Overview
- The Executive Board completed the fourth reviews of Seychelles’ economic performance under the 36-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangements approved on May 31, 2023.
- Completion of the reviews allows immediate disbursements intended to strengthen macroeconomic stability, sustain growth, and reinforce fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, while supporting climate resilience and catalyzing financing for climate-related investments.
- The completion permits drawing the equivalent of SDR 6.1 million (about $8.3 million) under the EFF and SDR 3.9 million (about $5.3 million) under the RSF, bringing total disbursements to SDR 30.5 million (about $41.7 million) under the EFF and SDR 13.3 million (about $18.2 million) under the RSF.
- Immediate disbursement announced on completion totals about US$13.7 million.
Economic performance (2024) and near-term outlook (2025)
- 2024 real GDP growth: 2.9 percent (estimated), reflecting lower dynamism in the tourism sector.
- 2024 year-on-year inflation: 1.7 percent as of December, driven by an increase in utility prices and pass-through from currency depreciation.
- 2024 primary surplus: equivalent to 3.2 percent of GDP.
- 2025 projected real GDP growth: 3.2 percent (Proj.), revised down from 4.3 percent at previous reviews, reflecting a weaker outlook for tourism due to slower growth in Europe.
- 2025 year-on-year inflation expected: moderate to 1.2 percent by end-2025 due to lower utility, fuel and food prices.
- Outlook characterized as low but stable growth for 2025 and beyond, subject to considerable uncertainty and near-term downside risks related to tourism activity.
Program implementation and conditionality
- EFF performance: Strong. All quantitative program targets (QPCs) and structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-December 2024 were met.
- RSF performance: Progress satisfactory. All reform measures (RMs) for March 2025 have been implemented.
- Delays and modifications:
- Two SBs scheduled for the first half of 2025 have minor delays due to capacity constraints.
- One component of an RM scheduled for April 2025 (related to energy pricing and issuance of a new multi-year electricity tariff system) is delayed and expected to be completed in November.
- Authorities requested minor modifications for two RMs slated for December 2025.
Fiscal, monetary, and financial conditions
- Monetary policy: Central Bank of Seychelles has maintained an accommodative monetary stance.
- Fiscal performance in 2024: tighter than budgeted, driven mainly by underspending on capital expenditure, delays in execution of capital projects, bottlenecks in public procurement, and civil service recruitment delays.
- Near-term policy priorities (authorities’ stated):
- Support economic growth.
- Strengthen fiscal and external positions.
- Maintain prudent monetary policy and a sound financial sector.
- Medium-term policy priorities:
- Steady fiscal consolidation to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP.
- Improve efficiency of public spending.
- Build capacity in public financial management and financial sector supervision.
- Structural reform emphasis: revenue administration, public financial and investment management, climate change resilience, governance improvements, digitalization, and transparency.
Climate, resilience, and RSF objectives
- RSF reforms aimed to:
- Enhance climate-resilience of public investments.
- Diversify financing sources.
- Strengthen assessment and disclosure of climate-related financial sector risk.
- Expected benefits from reforms:
- Enhance economic resilience and external financing prospects.
- Build institutional capacity for public investment in climate adaptation.
- Diversify Seychelles’ power generation capacity, reducing dependence on imported energy.
- Continued collaboration with IMF and partners highlighted to fill capacity gaps and mobilize climate finance.
Risks
- Main near-term downside risks:
- Slower global growth and higher uncertainty reducing tourism arrivals and spending, particularly due to slower growth in Europe.
- Commodity price volatility feeding into inflation.
- Global trade tensions potentially reducing FDI and leading to tighter financial conditions.
- Program role: EFF arrangement seen as helping protect macroeconomic stability and support stronger fiscal and external buffers while advancing structural reforms.
Selected key statistics and projections (2022–30 excerpts)
- Nominal GDP (millions of Seychelles rupees): 28,807 (2022 Act.), 30,663 (2023 Prel.), 31,643 (2024 Proj.), 32,899 (2025 Proj.), 34,464 (2026), 36,466 (2027), 38,841 (2028), 41,396 (2029), 44,121 (2030).
- Real GDP (millions of Seychelles rupees): 25,585 (2022 Act.), 26,163 (2023 Prel.), 26,935 (2024 Proj.), 27,808 (2025 Proj.), 28,692 (2026), 29,662 (2027), 30,673 (2028), 31,731 (2029), 32,835 (2030).
- Real GDP (annual percent change): 12.7 (2022 Act.), 2.3 (2023 Prel.), 2.9 (2024 Proj.), 3.2 (2025 Proj.), 3.4 (2026 Proj.), 3.5 (2027 Proj.).
- CPI (annual average): 2.6 (2022), -0.9 (2023), 0.3 (2024), 1.0 (2025), 2.0 (2026), 3.0 (2027).
- CPI (end-of-period): 2.5 (2022), -2.7 (2023), 1.7 (2024), 1.2 (2025), 2.8 (2026).
- Current account deficit (including official transfers, percent of GDP): -7.5 (2022), -7.4 (2023), -7.9 (2024), -9.2 (2025), -8.8 (2026), -8.4 (2027).
- Gross official reserves (end of year, millions of U.S. dollars): 639 (2022), 682 (2023), 774 (2024), 817 (2025), 830 (2026), 862 (2027), 893 (2028), 956 (2029), 1,021 (2030).
- Months of imports, c.i.f. (reserves): 3.8 (2024), 3.9 (2025).
- Reserves relative to ARA metric (percent): 102 (2022), 105 (2023), 115 (2024), 118 (2025), 117 (2026), 119 (2027), 124 (2028), 127 (2029).
- Total external debt outstanding (millions of U.S. dollars): 5,471 (2022), 5,694 (2023), 5,945 (2024), 6,208 (2025), 6,428 (2026), 6,645 (2027), 6,585 (2028), 6,588 (2029), 6,620 (2030).
- Total government and government-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 62.6 (2022), 57.3 (2023), 59.6 (2024), 61.2 (2025), 61.8 (2026), 60.4 (2027), 56.8 (2028), 52.6 (2029), 49.0 (2030).
- Primary balance (percent of GDP): 1.8 (2022), 3.1 (2024).
- Broad money growth: 0.6 (2022), 5.8 (2023), 7.3 (2024), 7.0 (2025).
- Credit to the private sector (annual percent change): 4.0 (2022), 7.4 (2023), 12.1 (2024), 9.4 (2025), 9.1 (2026), 8.6 (2027), 8.4 (2028), 8.1 (2029), 8.0 (2030).
- Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 15.5 (2022), 17.3 (2023), 16.1 (2024), 16.6 (2025), 16.4 (2026), 16.9 (2027), 17.5 (2028), 17.2 (2029).
- Private consumption (percent of GDP): 50.6 (2022), 49.4 (2023), 49.8 (2024), 48.6 (2025), 47.6 (2026), 48.0 (2027), 47.8 (2028), 48.9 (2029), 49.6 (2030).
- Seychelles rupees per US$1 (end-of-period): 14.1 (2022), 14.2 (2023), 14.8 (2024).
- Seychelles rupees per US$1 (period average): 14.3 (2022), 14.0 (2023), 14.5 (2024).
Source: IMF Executive Board press release, June 16, 2025.