IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Equatorial Guinea and IMF Management Approves the First and Second Reviews Under the Staff Monitored Program for Equatorial Guinea
IMF News, July 25, 2025
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- IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Equatorial Guinea and IMF Management Approves the First and Second Reviews Under the Staff Monitored Program for Equatorial Guinea
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- Published: July 25, 2025
Key outcomes and program status
- IMF Management approved the completion of the first and second reviews and a 12-month extension of the Staff Monitored Program (SMP) for Equatorial Guinea on June 25, 2025.
- The authorities consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
- SMPs are informal agreements between national authorities and IMF staff to monitor the authorities’ economic program and do not entail endorsement by the IMF Executive Board. SMP staff reports are issued to the Board for information.
- Performance under the SMP has been strong: significant reforms implemented and a substantial fiscal adjustment met SMP conditionality.
- The authorities decided not to publish asset declarations of public officials, missing two structural benchmarks; the SMP extension provides an opportunity to complete an alternative governance reform measure—the publication of an extractive industry transparency report in line with EITI standards.
Recent macroeconomic developments and outlook
- 2024 growth and 2025–26 projections:
- Real GDP: 0.9 (2024); -1.6 (2025); 0.5 (2026)
- Hydrocarbon GDP: 0.4 (2024); -6.4 (2025); -2.6 (2026)
- Non-hydrocarbon GDP: 1.3 (2024); 2.3 (2025); 2.8 (2026)
- Prices and money:
- GDP deflator: 2.5 (2024); 3.0 (2025); 1.0 (2026)
- Consumer prices (annual average): 3.4 (2024); 2.9 (2025); (2026 value not listed)
- Consumer prices (end of period): 3.5 (2024)
- Broad money: 2.6 (2024); 2.7 (2025)
- Outlook summary:
- Equatorial Guinea registered a mild economic recovery in 2024, growing by 0.9 percent following a strong contraction in 2023.
- Non-hydrocarbon GDP growth slowed in 2024 to 1.3 percent.
- The economy is expected to grow only modestly in the medium term as hydrocarbon production declines.
- Inflation increased from 2.5 percent in 2023 to 3.4 percent in 2024; inflationary pressures have persisted.
External sector and reserves
- Exports and imports:
- Exports, f.o.b.: -7.1 (2024); 1.6 (2025); -8.7 (2026)
- Hydrocarbon exports: -8.4 (2024); 1.7 (2025); -10.2 (2026)
- Non-hydrocarbon exports: 1.8 (2024)
- Imports, f.o.b.: -8.9 (2024); 2.2 (2025); -1.9 (2026)
- Current account and reserves:
- Current account balance (including official transfers; - = deficit): -3.2 (2024); -3.3 (2025); -4.5 (2026)
- Imputed Foreign Reserves (net), US$billion: 0.2 (2024)
- Equatorial Guinea’s contribution to foreign reserves at the regional central bank remained negative in 2024, following a reserve loss in 2023.
Fiscal developments and debt
- Fiscal adjustment and balances:
- The authorities’ substantial fiscal adjustment in 2024 improved the non-hydrocarbon primary balance from -22.3 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2023 to -17.0 percent in 2024.
- Non-hydrocarbon primary balance (levels shown in table): -11.7 (2024); -12.6 (2025); -12.3 (2026)
- Non-hydrocarbon primary balance (as percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP): -17.0 (2024); -17.4 (2025); -16.4 (2026)
- Fiscal aggregates (percent of GDP):
- Revenue: 17.9 (2024); 17.8 (2025); 16.7 (2026)
- Hydrocarbon revenue: 14.5 (2024); 14.3 (2025); 13.0 (2026)
- Non-hydrocarbon revenue: 3.7 (2024)
- Expenditure: -14.3 (2024); 0.7 (2025); -5.0 (2026) — (Note: table lists "Revenue" and "Expenditure" rows; values are presented as in source.)
- Overall fiscal balance (Commitment basis): 18.5 (2024) [table formatting retained as in source]
- Overall fiscal balance (Cash basis): 19.1 (2025); 18.6 (2026) [table formatting retained as in source]
- Public debt and composition:
- Total public debt: 36.4 (2024); 37.0 (2025); 38.4 (2026)
- Domestic debt: 28.7 (2024); 28.0 (2025); 27.9 (2026)
- External debt: 7.8 (2024); 9.0 (2025); 10.5 (2026)
- External debt service-to-exports ratio (percent): 6.2 (2024); 5.7 (2025)
- External debt service/government revenue (percent): 7.9 (2024); 7.4 (2025); 7.7 (2026)
- Memorandum fiscal and macro items:
- Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel)3: 79.9 (2024); 67.7 (2025); 63.3 (2026)
- Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs): 7,740 (2024); 7,846 (2025); 7,959 (2026)
- Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars): 12,769 (2024); 12,881 (2025); 13,138 (2026)
- Government deposits (in percent of GDP): 17.7 (2024); 17.5 (2025); 17.2 (2026)
Financial sector developments
- Banking sector:
- The banking sector showed clear signs of improvement in 2024 but remains undercapitalized.
- The average capital adequacy ratio of the system is marginally below the regulatory minimum, but substantially higher than at the end of 2022.
- Financial sector measures:
- Authorities completed the audit of the systemic public bank and created an arrears clearance strategy; began making payments under a new arrears clearance strategy.
- Directors highlighted the importance of obtaining approval from the regional banking supervisor for the arrears clearance plan, further strengthening private banks’ balance sheets, and implementing the financial inclusion strategy.
Structural reforms, governance, and transparency
- Reforms implemented in 2024:
- Enacted a new tax law that broadens the tax base.
- Prepared a plan to phase out fuel subsidies.
- Began making payments under a new arrears clearance strategy.
- Reformed the customs administration.
- Developed an AML/CFT strategy.
- Published contracts in the extractive sector and an audit of spending following the accidental explosions in Bata in 2021.
- Governance concerns and actions:
- Authorities did not publish asset declarations of public officials, missing two structural benchmarks.
- SMP extension provides opportunity to publish an extractive industry transparency report in line with EITI standards as an alternative governance reform measure.
- Directors urged redoubled efforts to substantially improve transparency and governance, including reconsidering publication of asset declarations and implementing the AML/CFT strategy.
- Directors recommended further governance reforms highlighted in the 2019 governance diagnostic and stressed the need for a predictable and transparent business environment to attract investment.
Executive Board assessment and recommendations
- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and welcomed the 12‑month SMP extension.
- Key Director conclusions and recommendations:
- Recognized progress on the reform agenda under the SMP but noted the macroeconomic environment remains challenging due to continued decline in hydrocarbon production placing sustained pressure on fiscal and external balances.
- Urged steadfast reform implementation to address long‑standing and serious governance challenges, support economic diversification, and lay the foundation for private sector‑led, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
- Welcomed the authorities’ decision to anchor public debt to preserve debt sustainability and restore external balance, noting this will require a gradual and sustained fiscal adjustment amid declining hydrocarbon revenues.
- Stressed the need to mobilize domestic non‑hydrocarbon revenues, strengthen fiscal institutions, and improve public financial management.
- Called for ambitious social spending reform and approval of the social protection law to build comprehensive social safety nets.
- Highlighted remaining financial sector vulnerabilities and the need for approval of the arrears clearance plan by the regional banking supervisor and continued balance sheet strengthening for private banks.
- Recommended publication of an annual report on financial flows in the extractive sector to demonstrate commitment to addressing governance deficits.
- It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.
Selected economic and financial indicators (highlights from Table 1)
- Real GDP: 0.9 (2024); -1.6 (2025); 0.5 (2026)
- Hydrocarbon GDP: 0.4 (2024); -6.4 (2025); -2.6 (2026)
- Non-hydrocarbon GDP: 1.3 (2024); 2.3 (2025); 2.8 (2026)
- Consumer prices (annual average): 3.4 (2024); 2.9 (2025)
- Exports, f.o.b.: -7.1 (2024); 1.6 (2025); -8.7 (2026)
- Total public debt: 36.4 (2024); 37.0 (2025); 38.4 (2026)
- Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel): 79.9 (2024); 67.7 (2025); 63.3 (2026)
- Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars): 12,769 (2024); 12,881 (2025); 13,138 (2026)
- Oil volume (crude and condensado, millions of barrels): 29.1 (2024); 26.8 (2025); 25.1 (2026)
- Total Hydrocarbon Volume (in millions of barrels of oil equivalent): 81.0 (2024); 76.0 (2025); 74.7 (2026)
- Exchange rate (average; CFA francs/U.S. dollar): 606.2 (2024)
Source: IMF Press Release No. 25/267, July 25, 2025.