IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam
IMF News, September 15, 2025
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- Published: September 15, 2025
Overview
- On September 8, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Vietnam.
- The authorities need more time to consider the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
- Press Release No. 25/296.
Recent performance and near-term outlook
- The Vietnamese economy rebounded strongly in 2024, growing at 7.1 percent backed by robust exports, resilient foreign direct investment, and supportive policies.
- Economic activity expanded by 7.5 percent (y/y) in the first half of 2025 thanks to export frontloading, faster credit growth, and large one-off government spending.
- Inflation accelerated somewhat in recent months, reaching 3.6 percent y/y in June, but remains below the target.
- The current account surplus reached a record 6.6 percent of GDP in 2024.
- Growth projection: economic growth is projected to slow to 6.5 percent in 2025 and decelerate further in 2026 given the full year effect of the new U.S. tariffs (announced in July) and unwinding of most of the one-off 2025 government stimulus.
- The outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations and is constrained by elevated global uncertainty on trade policies and economic environment.
Key risks and alternative scenarios
- Downside risks:
- A further escalation in global trade tensions could weaken exports and investment.
- Tightening of global financial conditions could weaken exports and investment.
- Domestically, financial stress could re-emerge from tighter financial conditions and high corporate indebtedness.
- Upside possibilities:
- Successfully implementing infrastructure projects and structural reforms could significantly boost medium-term growth.
- If global trade tensions subside, the economic outlook would improve.
Executive Board assessment and policy guidance
- General assessment:
- Directors welcomed that, despite increased external and domestic volatility, economic growth has been remarkably resilient helped by supportive policies.
- Directors cautioned that the economy’s export‑led growth model faces increasing challenges from rapidly evolving and uncertain global trade policies, population aging, tightening global financial conditions, and climate change.
- Policies should focus on maintaining economic resilience and financial stability, while promoting reforms to sustain robust, diversified, and stable medium‑term growth.
- Fiscal policy:
- Given available fiscal space, fiscal policy could be more prominent in prudently supporting economic activity, especially with temporary and targeted support if needed.
- Strengthening the medium‑term fiscal framework is crucial for reaping growth dividends from planned large public investment while safeguarding debt sustainability.
- Important measures: upgrade public investment management, enhance revenue mobilization, increase fiscal transparency, and better manage risks, including from public‑private partnerships.
- Monetary and exchange rate policy:
- Room to ease monetary policy is very limited; inflation and FX risks should be closely monitored given still buoyant economic and credit growth.
- Greater exchange rate flexibility is critical to facilitate adjustment to external shocks.
- Benefits from accelerating modernization of the monetary policy framework to better manage risks.
- Financial sector resilience:
- Priority actions: build liquidity and capital buffers and improve the macroprudential toolkit.
- Calls for upgrading insolvency, crisis preparedness and resolution, and AML/CFT frameworks.
- Advance the framework for the regulation of crypto assets.
- Structural reforms and productivity:
- Directors welcomed the authorities’ broad reform agenda but stressed implementation will be key.
- Recommended actions to raise productivity: improve the business environment; reform capital and labor markets.
- Further efforts to boost domestic demand and reduce external imbalances: invest in upgrading key infrastructure; strengthen social safety nets; promote greater trade diversification.
- Emphasis on discussing the impact of the policy mix on external imbalances and required policy responses.
- Support for major institutional reforms to bolster government efficiency, with further progress needed on improving economic governance and tackling data gaps, including in the external sector.
Selected economic indicators and key statistics (2021–2026)
- Real GDP (percent change): 2021: 2.6; 2022: 8.5; 2023: 5.1; 2024: 7.1; 2025: 6.5; 2026: 5.6
- Output Gap (percent of potential GDP): 2021: -1.9; 2022: 0.4; 2023: -0.4; 2024: 0.3
- Unemployment rate: 2021: 2.5; 2022: 3.2; 2023: 2.3; 2024: 2.2
- CPI (period average): 2021: 1.8; 2022: 3.3; 2023: 3.6; 2024: 3.4
- Core inflation (period average): 2021: 0.8; 2022: 4.2; 2023: 2.7; 2024: 2.8
- Gross national saving (percent of GDP): 2021: 30.7; 2022: 32.7; 2023: 38.0; 2024: 37.2; 2025: 34.9; 2026: 33.2
- Gross investment (percent of GDP): 2021: 32.9; 2022: 32.3; 2023: 31.6; 2024: 30.6; 2025: 30.9; 2026: 30.8
- Private: 2021: 26.7; 2022: 26.1; 2023: 24.8; 2024: 24.6; 2025: 24.1; 2026: 23.7
- Public: 2021: 6.2; 2022: 6.3; 2023: 6.8; 2024: 5.9
- State budget finances (in percent of GDP) 1/:
- Revenue and grants: 2021: 18.7; 2022: 18.9; 2023: 17.1; 2024: 17.6; 2025: 18.4; 2026: 17.7
- Expenditure: 2021: 20.1; 2022: 18.2; 2023: 18.8; 2024: 19.1; 2025: 21.7; 2026: 13.0 (Expense row shows 2025: 13.0)
- Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) 2/: 2021: -1.4; 2022: 0.7; 2023: -1.7; 2024: -1.5; 2025: -3.3; 2026: -2.3
- Public and publicly guaranteed debt (end of period): 2021: 39.2; 2022: 34.3; 2023: 31.3; 2024: 32.0; 2025: 31.8
- Broad money (M2, percent change, end of period): 2021: 10.7; 2022: 12.5; 2023: 12.0; 2024: 11.5
- Credit to the economy (percent change, end of period): 2021: 13.5; 2022: 14.0; 2023: 13.7; 2024: 15.0
- Current account balance (including official transfers, percent of GDP): 2021: -2.2; 2022: 6.4; 2023: 6.6; 2024: 4.0; 2025: 2.4
- Exports f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 2021: 90.8; 2022: 90.4; 2023: 81.9; 2024: 88.3; 2025: 87.3; 2026: 83.6
- Imports f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 2021: 86.6; 2022: 83.3; 2023: 71.8; 2024: 78.9; 2025: 79.3; 2026: 77.1
- Capital and financial account 3/: 2021: 8.3; 2022: -0.7; 2023: -4.8; 2024: -2.4
- Errors and Omissions: 2021: -8.2; 2022: -4.4; 2023: -6.9; 2024: …
- Gross international reserves (in billions of U.S. dollars) 4/: 2021: 109.4; 2022: 86.7; 2023: 92.3; 2024: 83.1; 2025: 79.2
- In months of prospective GNFS imports: 2021: 3.1; 2022: 2.1
- Total external debt (end of period): 2021: 37.9; 2022: 35.3; 2023: 32.1; 2024: 28.0; 2025: 29.1; 2026: 29.9
- Nominal exchange rate (dong/U.S. dollar, end of period): 2021: 22,826; 2022: 23,633; 2023: 24,269; 2024: 25,485
- Memorandum items (current prices):
- GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars): 2021: 370.1; 2022: 411.1; 2023: 433.0; 2024: 459.5; 2025: 484.7; 2026: 511.1
- Per capita GDP (in U.S. dollars): 2021: 3,757; 2022: 4,133; 2023: 4,317; 2024: 4,536; 2025: 4,745; 2026: 4,965
Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam (Press Release No. 25/296), September 15, 2025.