IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit to Qatar

IMF News, September 25, 2025

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IMF team led by Mr. Nathan Porter visited Doha during September 8–17, 2025 to discuss recent economic and financial sector developments, the outlook, and the authorities’ plans.
End-of-mission statement conveys preliminary IMF staff findings; the mission will not result in a Board discussion.

Growth recovered to 2.4 percent in 2024, driven by faster non-hydrocarbon growth at 3.4 percent.
Tourism: visitor arrivals rose nearly 30 percent with high hotel occupancy.
Robust non-hydrocarbon growth of more than 4 percent is expected in 2025, consistent with sound growth in 2025H1 and strong PMI readings.
Medium-term overall growth projected to average 4 percent, reflecting the North Field expansion and implementation of NDS3.

Headline inflation was 1.3 percent in 2024 and remained negligible in the first half of 2025.
Core inflation declined from 2½ percent in 2024 to 1.3 percent in the first half of 2025.
Base effects are expected to raise inflation above 2.5 percent in 2026 before it stabilizes around 2 percent over the medium term.
The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) continues to align its policy rates closely with that of the US Federal Reserve.

The current account remained strong in 2024, posting a surplus exceeding 17 percent of GDP.
The surplus remained solid in the first quarter of 2025 at 15.6 percent of GDP.
QCB foreign reserves: US$55 billion, 8.1 months of imports, in August.
Anticipated direct impact of US tariffs is limited due to the exemption of hydrocarbon exports.

Overall fiscal surplus declined to 0.7 percent of GDP in 2024 with lower hydrocarbon revenues.
The non-hydrocarbon primary balance improved by 2.4 percentage points.
Central government debt declined to approximately 40 percent of GDP.
The 2025 budget plans for spending levels comparable to 2024.
Recommendation: gradual consolidation over the medium term to support a non-hydrocarbon primary balance consistent with intergenerational equity; maintaining fiscal prudence to sustain twin current account and fiscal surpluses.

Banks show strong capitalization, liquidity, and profitability.
Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio declined slightly to 3.6 percent in June; variability exists across the system but NPLs are well provisioned.
QCB stress tests suggest banks maintain adequate buffers to withstand potential shocks.
Vulnerability: reliance on external funding, partially mitigated by a shift toward longer-term and more stable domestic funding.
Outlook: North Field LNG expansion and associated activity expected to bolster credit demand in coming years.

Government advancing reforms under Third National Development Strategy (NDS3) with focus on diversification, competitiveness, productivity, and climate sustainability.
Progress noted in:
- Enhancing protection and mobility of expatriate workers.
- Attracting skilled talent and improving the business climate.
- Policies to promote Qatarization within the private sector and to further foreign direct investment.
- Digitalization and artificial intelligence progress supported by digital upskilling and innovation initiatives.
- Continued commitment to climate action.

Key risks: fluctuations in global energy prices, heightened global uncertainty, and possible disruptions to trade routes affecting export earnings, fiscal revenues, and economic activity.
Policy emphasis:
- Preserve strong policies and buffers to mitigate risks.
- Maintain sound macroeconomic and financial sector policies and proactive risk management.
- Continue structural reforms under NDS3 to strengthen diversification and resilience.

IMF team met with H.E. Minister of Finance Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari, H.E. QCB Governor Sheikh Bandar bin Mohammed bin Saud Al Thani, other senior government officials, and private sector representatives.
IMF expects to continue dialogue ahead of the Article IV Consultation, which is expected to be early in the first quarter of 2026.

IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit to Qatar, September 25, 2025.