IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Uruguay
IMF News, October 30, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Uruguay
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: October 30, 2025
Overview
- The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Uruguay. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
- Real GDP growth in 2024: 3.1 percent.
- Inflation in August 2025: 4.2 percent, below the central bank target.
- Central bank began easing monetary policy in July 2025 as inflation and inflation expectations declined.
- Fiscal deficit of the central government, including social security, in 2024: 3.2 percent of GDP; activation of the fiscal rule’s escape clause was required.
- New administration took office in March 2025 with an agenda to balance inclusive growth and macroeconomic stability.
Economic outlook and projections
- Real GDP growth is expected to reach 2.5 percent in 2025, driven by domestic demand and exports.
- Inflation is expected to remain around the central bank target of 4.5 percent, with a gradual easing of monetary policy.
- Current account deficit is expected to widen slightly to 1.7 percent of GDP in the medium term.
- Macroeconomic risks are described as broadly balanced; economy remains sensitive to commodity price movements, global financial conditions, and regional developments.
- Upside risks cited include strong agricultural harvests, favorable commodity prices, and opportunities to access new markets.
Executive Board assessment and policy guidance
- Directors highlighted resilience to external shocks, supported by sound macroeconomic policies.
- Directors welcomed progress in upgrading fiscal and monetary policy frameworks and urged sustaining reform momentum to boost sustainable and inclusive growth.
- Fiscal policy:
- Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to prudent fiscal policy and their five year budget plan to reduce the deficit and stabilize debt in the medium term.
- Noted the fiscal deficit is expected to increase in 2025 due to fiscal inertia; emphasized steadfast implementation of the fiscal rule.
- Underscored need for sustained fiscal consolidation to place debt-to-GDP on a steady downward path, including by considering additional fiscal efforts.
- Welcomed proposed enhancements to the fiscal rule and the fiscal council.
- Monetary policy:
- Directors concurred the monetary policy stance has been appropriately tight and encouraged maintaining it until inflation expectations and inflationary pressures have firmly converged to target.
- Welcomed improvements in the central bank’s monetary policy framework and communication strategy.
- Encouraged strengthening de jure central bank independence to bolster credibility.
- Agreed the exchange rate should continue to act as a shock absorber; FX interventions should be limited to disorderly market conditions.
- Welcomed renewed de‑dollarization efforts.
- Financial sector and markets:
- Banking sector described as sound, well capitalized, and profitable.
- Welcomed commitment to strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks, including implementation of the 2022 FSAP recommendations.
- Recommended further strengthening AML/CFT effectiveness in line with FATF standards.
- Encouraged development of peso capital markets.
- Structural reforms:
- Recommended reforms to revitalize growth and boost productivity: enhance educational outcomes, bolster human capital, leverage Uruguay’s AI readiness.
- Stressed need to improve competitiveness by streamlining business regulations, facilitating trade, and removing regulatory bottlenecks.
- Welcomed government proposal for wage negotiations to boost low incomes and contribute to deindexation efforts.
- Encouraged reforms to increase labor force participation and facilitate migrant integration.
- Continued efforts to improve climate resilience were also encouraged.
Key statistics and projections (selected)
- GDP (2024) in trillions of pesos: 3.3
- GDP (2024) in billions USD: 81.0
- In millions of SDRs: 429.1
- GDP per capita (2024), U.S. dollars: 23,186
- Quota (In % of total): 0.09
- Population (2023) in millions: 3.5
- Poverty rate (2024): 17.3
- Main products and exports: Cellulose, beef, soybeans
- Gini coefficient (2023): 40.9
- Key export markets: China, Brazil, US, EU
- Literacy rate (2022): 99.0
Projections and selected historical indicators (percent change or levels as presented)
- Real GDP (percent change): 2022: 4.5; 2023: 0.7; 2024: 3.1; 2025: 2.5; 2026: 2.4
- GDP (US$ billions): 2022: 70.6; 2023: 78.0; 2024: 85.0; 2025: 90.6
- Unemployment (in percent, pa): 2022: 7.9; 2023: 8.3; 2024: 8.2; 2025: 8.0
- Output gap (percent of potential output): 2022: -0.4; 2023: -1.3; 2024: -1.0; 2025: -0.8; 2026: -0.5
- CPI inflation (in percent, end of period): 2022: 5.1; 2023: 5.5; 2024: 4.0
- Base money (percent change of end-of-year data): 1/ 1.7; 9.0; ...
- M2 (percent change of end-of-year data): 7.2; 11.3; 13.3
- Growth of credit to households (in real pesos): 6.4; 7.0; 4.6
- Growth of credit to firms (in US$): 19.1; 11.2; 7.3
- Bank assets (in percent of GDP): 67.6; 63.2
- Private credit (in percent of GDP) 2/: 26.6; 28.6; 31.1
- Monetary policy rate (end of period): 8.8
- Revenue CG-BPS (In percent of GDP): 27.3; 27.4; 28.2; 28.8
- Primary expenditure CG-BPS (In percent of GDP): 28.0; 28.4; 28.9; 29.9; 30.2
- Primary balance NFPS (In percent of GDP): -1.5; excluding cincuen/cuarentones 4/: -0.6; -1.4
- Interest NFPS (In percent of GDP): 2.0; 2.1; 2.3; -3.8
- Overall balance CG-BPS (In percent of GDP): -3.0; -3.2; -3.7; -4.0
- Overall balance NFPS (In percent of GDP): -2.5; -3.1; -3.3; -2.7; -3.4; -3.9
- Gross debt NFPS (In percent of GDP): 59.9; 64.0; 68.7; 66.6; 68.3
- Net debt CG-BPS (authorities' definition) (In percent of GDP) 5/: 52.4; 54.5; 58.0; 57.7; 60.4
- Merchandise exports, fob (US$ billions): 17.7; 15.2; 16.3; 16.9; 18.1
- Merchandise imports, fob (US$ billions): 13.4; 12.9; 13.0; 14.0
- Terms of trade (percent change): -1.7; 0.1; 0.4
- Current account balance: -3.5
- Total external debt + non-resident deposits: 78.1; 64.6; 55.8; 57.8
- Of which: External public debt (percent of GDP): 29.4; 29.6; 31.4; 31.6; 32.7
- External debt service (in percent of exports of g&s): 54.2; 53.4; 49.0; 49.6; 33.6
- Gross official reserves (US$ billions): 15.1; 16.2; 17.4; 19.5; 19.7
- In months of imports of goods and services: 9.2; 10.0; 10.9; 11.7; 11.1
Notes and data sources
- Sources: Banco Central del Uruguay; Ministerio de Economia y Finanzas; Instituto Nacional de Estadistica; and IMF staff calculations.
- 1/ Percent change of end-of-year data.
- 2/ Includes bank and non-bank credit.
- 3/ Non-financial public sector (NFPS) includes the Central Government (CG), Banco de Prevision Social (BPS), Banco de Seguros del Estado (BSE), and Non-Financial Public Enterprises (NFPE).
- 4/ Temporary proceeds resulting from the pension reform that allowed workers above 50 or 40 years old (and with certain income level) to voluntarily move back to the public pension system.
- 5/ Incorporates the authorities’ August-2025 revision to the debt-ratio calculation—peso debt over peso GDP.
IMF Press Release No. 25/352 — October 30, 2025