IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Kazakhstan

IMF News, January 28, 2026

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The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan’s economy continued to grow at a rapid pace in 2025, boosted by rising oil output and robust activity in non-oil sectors.
Strong domestic demand, underpinned by an expansionary public sector stance, has contributed to clear signs of economic overheating and pushed inflation well above its target.
Banks remain resilient amid rapid consumer credit growth.
In the medium-term, growth is projected to moderate to around 3½ percent, and inflation would decline only gradually to its 5 percent target by 2030.

Findings:

Rapid growth in 2025 driven by rising oil output and robust non-oil activity.
Clear signs of economic overheating due to strong domestic demand and expansionary public sector stance.
Imported price pressures contributed to inflation well above target.

Projection:

Monetary policy:

The National Bank of Kazakhstan continues to maintain a tight monetary stance amid persistent inflation pressures.
Directors emphasized maintaining a tight monetary policy stance until inflation is close to target and noted the need for further policy rate hikes should inflation increase.
Directors called for more effective liquidity management, including greater issuance of short‑term notes by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, coordinated with the issuance of treasury bills by the Ministry of Finance, to strengthen monetary transmission, enhance government cash management, and support domestic capital market development.

Fiscal policy:

Planned fiscal consolidation in the 2026 state-budget will be largely offset by expanding quasi-fiscal activities by State Owned Enterprises, resulting in a continued overall loose public sector stance.
Directors recommended an overall fiscal consolidation to avoid fiscal procyclicality.
Directors emphasized additional measures to strengthen planned fiscal consolidation, including phasing out remaining tax exemptions.
Directors stressed that off‑budget activities of SOEs should be more restrained and carefully calibrated to avoid undermining disinflation efforts.
Enhancing the fiscal framework is a priority.

Findings and recommendations:

Banks remain sound, but risks are notable from rapid consumer credit growth.
Rapid progress in implementing the 2023 FSAP recommendations and ongoing deployment of prudential measures should continue to support financial stability.
Directors encouraged continuing to implement key 2023 FSAP recommendations and further strengthen banking system stability.
Priority actions urged:
- Enact the new Banking Law.
- Establish capacity to operationalize the new bank resolution framework.
- Regulate and supervise activities in the digital asset space.
Ensuring prudential measures are well‑targeted will help mitigate potential financial stability risks from household over‑indebtedness.

Findings and recommendations:

Structural reform implementation faces persistent challenges; the state footprint remains large and constrains private sector development.
Directors urged accelerating market and governance structural reforms to reduce the role of the state and promote private sector activity.
Further investments in health, education, digitalization, and infrastructure should be complemented by reforms to:
- Reinforce legal protections.
- Ensure property rights.
- Reduce the cost of doing business to level the playing field for the private sector.
Strengthening the AML/CFT framework is also key.

Directors commended authorities for the economy’s resilience amid global policy uncertainty and oil price fluctuations.
They noted strong economic growth accompanied by persistently high inflation and a widening current account deficit, consistent with overheating.
Ensuring a more restrictive and well‑coordinated macroeconomic policy mix and additional structural reform efforts is important to deliver more sustainable, inclusive growth.

Output and prices (Annual percent change)

General government fiscal accounts (Percent of GDP)

Revenues and grants: 2024: 19.2; 2025: 17.6; 2026: 17.8; 2027: 18.3
Expenditures and net lending: 2024: 22.7; 2025: 21.6; 2026: 21.3; 2027: (not provided)
Overall fiscal balance: 2024: -3.5; 2025: -4.0; 2026: -3.0; 2027: (not provided)
Non-oil fiscal balance: 2024: -8.2; 2025: -8.3; 2026: -7.4; 2027: -7.1
Gross public debt: 2024: 24.4; 2025: 25.2; 2026: 27.5; 2027: 28.8

Monetary accounts

External sector (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

Current account balance: 2024: -2.7; 2025: -4.1; 2026: -4.3; 2027: -4.2
Reserves Assets (USD billion): 2024: 45.8; 2025: 56.1; 2026: 62.6; 2027: 62.8
In months of following year imports of G&S (Units): 2024: 7.0; 2025: 8.2; 2026: 8.9; 2027: 8.8
NFRK assets: 2024: 19.9; 2025: 19.4; 2026: 19.5; 2027: (not provided)
External debt: 2024: 56.5; 2025: 62.7; 2026: 63.9; 2027: 63.8

Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Kazakhstan (Press Release No. 26/021, January 27, 2026).