IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Suriname
IMF News, January 28, 2026
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- Published: January 28, 2026
Overview and context
- The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund completed the Article IV Consultation for Suriname. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
- Press Release No. 26/025; Washington, DC; January 28, 2026.
- The Fund noted that Suriname is approaching a pivotal transition to large‑scale oil production and that recent fiscal and monetary slippages in 2025 have eroded earlier stabilization gains.
Growth outlook and sectoral drivers
- GDP growth is slowing, driven by a decline in gold production.
- Non-natural resource growth is estimated to reach 4.7 percent in 2026, supported by positive oil-related sentiment.
- Oil field development and relatively stable gold production are expected to support growth of around 4 percent until 2028.
- Offshore oil production is expected to push growth to around 30 percent in 2028.
- Downside risks: policy slippages that could adversely affect macroeconomic stability.
- Upside risks: further developments of offshore oil and gas fields represent a material upside risk.
Fiscal and monetary developments
- Fiscal and monetary slippages in 2025 reduced cash buffers, weakened the currency, and increased inflation back to double digits.
- The increase in gross debt to an estimated 106 percent of GDP is mainly due to a successful liability management operation.
- The current account deficit is estimated to have exceeded 30 percent of GDP due to offshore oil field investment imports mostly financed by FDI.
- Improving the fiscal balance and meeting reserve money targets were highlighted as important course corrections.
Executive Board assessment — main messages
- Directors welcomed progress under the Fund‑supported program concluded in March 2025 but noted that recent fiscal and monetary slippages have eroded earlier stabilization gains.
- Renewed commitment to prudent and credible macroeconomic policies, strengthened institutions, and enhanced governance is needed to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support inclusive growth.
- Technical support from the Fund and other development partners will be important; a number of Directors supported the authorities’ request for a long‑term macro‑fiscal expert (LTX).
- Directors looked forward to close engagement between the authorities and the Fund under the Post Financing Assessment framework.
- It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Suriname will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.
Policy recommendations and priorities
- Fiscal policy
- Need for significant fiscal adjustment in 2026 to underpin stability.
- Raise the primary surplus while safeguarding priority investment in human capital.
- Specific measures encouraged: resume electricity subsidy reductions; restrain the wage bill; broaden the tax base; improve tax administration through digitalization.
- Implement full and timely operationalization of the recently passed public financial management and Sovereign Wealth Fund legislation to ensure transparent management of mineral revenues.
- Monetary policy
- Monetary policy should be firmly oriented towards maintaining price stability.
- Bring reserve money to target through open‑market operations.
- Support transition to a new monetary policy framework and enhance the central bank’s capacity.
- Limit FX interventions to a narrow definition of disorderly market conditions; emphasize exchange rate flexibility.
- Financial sector and governance
- Enhance financial sector resilience: assess and promote stronger bank risk‑management practices; step up supervisory monitoring, including nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs).
- Strengthen governance and anti‑corruption framework: amend the anti‑corruption law; operationalize the procurement law; strengthen the AML/CFT framework.
- Strengthen oversight of SOEs and enhance data collection.
Key statistics (selected economic indicators; Proj. = projection)
- Real sector (Annual percentage change)
- Real GDP: 2024 = 1.7; 2025 = 1.5; 2026 = 3.9
- o/w Non-Natural Resource Real GDP: 2024 = 4.1; 2025 = 4.4; 2026 = 4.7
- Nominal GDP: 2024 = 14.8; 2025 = 19.2; 2026 = 19.1
- Consumer prices (end of period): 2024 = 10.1; 2025 = 13.0; 2026 = 9.7
- Consumer prices (period average): 2024 = 16.2; 2025 = 9.5; 2026 = 12.3
- Money and credit
- Broad money: 2024 = 9.3; 2025 = 15.2; 2026 = 14.2
- Private sector credit: 2024 = 16.0; 2025 = 34.0; 2026 = 14.7
- Reserve money: 2024 = 23.6; 2025 = 16.3
- Central government (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
- Revenue and grants: 2024 = 26.9; 2025 = 28.2; 2026 = 27.5
- Of which: Mineral revenue: 2024 = 10.9; 2025 = 10.5
- Total expenditure 1/: 2024 = 29.3; 2025 = 38.2; 2026 = 32.8
- Of which: central bank recapitalization: 2024 = 5.4
- Overall Balance (Net lending/borrowing): 2024 = -2.4; 2025 = -10.0; 2026 = -5.4
- Primary Balance 1/: 2024 = 0.3; 2025 = -6.3; 2026 = -0.1
- Primary Balance (excl central bank recap): 2024 = -1.0
- Deposits at Central Bank: 2024 = 9.2; 2025 = 3.4; 2026 = 2.7
- Central government debt: 2024 = 88.0; 2025 = 106.3; 2026 = 96.2
- Domestic: 2024 = 14.4; 2025 = 18.0; 2026 = 17.6
- External: 2024 = 73.6; 2025 = 88.3; 2026 = 78.6
- External sector
- Current account balance: 2024 = 0.2; 2025 = -34.3; 2026 = -48.1
- Capital and financial account: 2024 = -2.5; 2025 = -31.5; 2026 = -51.0
- Memorandum items
- Gross international reserves (US$ millions) 2/: 2024 = 1,373; 2025 = 1,311; 2026 = 1,458
- In months of imports: 2024 = 6.4; 2025 = 3.5; 2026 = 3.1
- Escrow Account (US$ millions): 2024 = 851.9; 2025 = 680.9
- Exchange rate (SRD per USD, period average): 2024 = 33.05; 2025 = …
- Notes from table
- 1/ Expenditure includes central bank recapitalization of 9,381 Million SRD.
- 2/ Excludes banks’ ring-fenced reserves.
Source: IMF Communications Department, January 28, 2026.