IMF Management Approves the Third Review of the Staff Monitored Program with Equatorial Guinea

IMF News, February 6, 2026

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Management of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the completion of the Third Review of the non-financing Staff Monitored Program (SMP) with Equatorial Guinea on December 16, 2025.
The SMP is designed to support the authorities’ reforms to adjust the economy to structurally lower hydrocarbon output.
Staff Monitored Programs (SMPs) are informal agreements between national authorities and IMF staff to monitor the authorities’ economic program and do not entail endorsement by the IMF Executive Board. SMP staff reports are issued to the Board for information.

Economic activity:
- Equatorial Guinea’s economic activity is estimated to have contracted by 6.4 percent in 2025 on the back of a large fall in hydrocarbon production, following small positive overall growth in 2024.
- The economy is projected to slightly shrink in the medium term as hydrocarbon production continues to decline.
Inflation:
- Inflation decreased from a peak of 3.5 percent in March 2023 to 2.6 percent in October 2025.
External position:
- A drain on regional reserves is expected to continue in the medium term as hydrocarbon production declines.
- Equatorial Guinea’s contribution to foreign reserves at the regional central bank remained negative in 2025, following a reserve loss in 2023 and 2024.

Fiscal stance and balance:
- The authorities maintained gains from the substantial 2024 fiscal adjustment in the first half of 2025.
- Fiscal policy in 2025 was in line with plans to stabilize public debt dynamics and restore external balance.
- The objective of a non-hydrocarbon primary balance of -17.8 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025 as a whole was met.
Public debt:
- Public debt is estimated to have increased from 36.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 39.2 percent of GDP at the end of 2025.
- The authorities’ planned further fiscal adjustment will aim to keep public debt below 50 percent of GDP despite the projected decline in hydrocarbon revenues.
Budgeting:
- The authorities approved a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives, meeting an end-December 2025 structural benchmark.

Program conditionality and benchmarks:
- The authorities met all of the SMP’s end-June 2025 quantitative conditionality.
- The authorities met two of the four end-September 2025 program structural benchmarks.
- The authorities met an end-December 2025 structural benchmark by approving a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives.
Structural and institutional reforms implemented in 2025:
- Impactful structural fiscal measures to improve tax and customs administration.
- Prioritization of social spending, including elimination of fees for students to travel on public school buses.
- Work to obtain regional regulatory approval for a domestic arrears clearance plan to further strengthen the health of the financial sector.
- Progress on governance reforms, notably work begun on the publication of a hydrocarbon sector transparency report.
Financial assistance track record:
- The authorities are making progress toward establishing a track record for financial assistance from the IMF under the Upper Credit Tranche.
- Establishing a satisfactory track record continues to hinge on implementation of governance reforms, in particular the publication of a hydrocarbon sector transparency report.

Source: IMF press release, February 6, 2026.