IMF Staff Completes 2026 Article IV Consultation Mission with Morocco

IMF News, February 12, 2026

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IMF staff team led by Laura Jaramillo conducted discussions with the Moroccan authorities in Rabat on the 2026 Article IV Consultation from January 29 to February 11.
Statement issued at conclusion of the visit summarizes preliminary findings; staff will prepare a report for the IMF’s Executive Board subject to management approval.

Economic growth:
- 2025 growth estimated at 4.9 percent.
- 2026 growth projected at 4.9 percent, supported by public and private investment and solid agriculture output following exceptional rainfall.
Inflation:
- Headline inflation averaged 0.8 percent in 2025.
- Inflation projected to gradually rise toward 2 percent by mid-2027, supported by earlier policy rate cuts and strengthening growth momentum.
External sector:
- Given the high import content of the scaled-up public investment, the current account deficit is expected to widen moderately, notwithstanding higher tourism receipts.
- Financing of the current account is expected in part by higher FDIs.
- International reserves levels remain adequate.

Revenues and deficit:
- Tax revenues reached 24.6 percent of GDP in 2025, a significant increase over the last two years stemming from recent tax policy reforms and improved revenue administration.
- Central government deficit narrowed to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2025, compared to 3.8 percent projected in the 2025 Budget.
Fiscal policy priorities:
- At least part of any revenue overperformance should be saved to further strengthen fiscal buffers.
- Continued revenue performance together with reprioritization of spending would create space for more investment in human capital and help rebuild fiscal buffers.
- Taking full advantage of accelerated public investment requires carefully managing risks—including fiscal and economic risks—and ensuring greater investment in human capital, in particular health and education.
Public investment management:
- Staff welcomes progress in strengthening the medium-term budget framework (MTFF) and public investment management, including steps toward the adoption of a new fiscal rule.
- Continued efforts are needed to identify, quantify, and monitor fiscal risks systematically—particularly those related to SOEs—with greater reporting in the MTFF.

Monetary stance:
- With inflation well anchored, the current broadly neutral monetary policy stance remains appropriate.
- Monetary policy should continue to be guided by incoming data.
Exchange rate and framework transition:
- Staff encourages Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) to continue its transition to greater exchange rate flexibility as it progresses toward an inflation targeting (IT) framework, with clear communication on sequencing and priorities between policy objectives.
Financial sector:
- Staff welcomes BAM’s carefully sequenced non-performing loan reforms.
- Staff encourages efforts to continue strengthening the financial system’s resilience to emerging risks.

Jobs and labor market:
- Creating sustainable jobs remains a pressing priority.
- Sustainable job creation calls for a more favorable business climate, a more dynamic private sector, and further reforms in the labor market.
- Staff welcomes the ongoing implementation of the Job Plan 2030, which provides a comprehensive framework to reduce unemployment through modernized active labor‑market policies and expanded support for youth without diplomas, and encourages complementary measures to address skills mismatches.
SOEs and MSMEs:
- Accelerating SOE reforms to improve performance and governance is critical to strengthen competition and ensure market neutrality between public and private firms.
- Staff welcomes more targeted financial and technical assistance to micros, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)—including through the Investment Charter, regional investment centers, the Mohammed VI Investment Fund, and the new charter for MSMEs—and encourages close monitoring of employment outcomes.

Risks:
- Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced, with global risks stemming from a potential Euro Area slowdown and commodity price volatility.
- Fiscal and economic risks associated with scaled-up public investment require careful management.
Key policy recommendations:
- Save at least part of any revenue overperformance to rebuild fiscal buffers.
- Reprioritize spending to create space for more investment in human capital, particularly health and education.
- Continue strengthening MTFF reporting and systematic monitoring of fiscal risks, especially those related to SOEs.
- Continue the transition toward greater exchange rate flexibility and an inflation targeting framework with clear communication on sequencing and priorities.
- Continue non-performing loan reforms and strengthen financial sector resilience.
- Accelerate SOE reforms and support MSMEs while closely monitoring employment outcomes.
- Implement complementary measures under Job Plan 2030 to address skills mismatches and support youth without diplomas.

Excerpted from IMF Press Release No. 26/044, February 12, 2026.