IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Thailand
IMF News, February 13, 2026
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- Published: February 13, 2026
Economic outlook and recent developments
- Thailand’s GDP growth is estimated to have slowed from 2.5 percent in 2024 to 2.1 percent in 2025 and expected to decline further to 1.6 percent in 2026 as external headwinds intensify.
- Inflation is projected to remain subdued at 0.4 percent in 2026 before gradually rising thereafter.
- Recent drivers and constraints:
- Increasing external and domestic headwinds—including trade policy uncertainty, constrained credit growth, and a slower rebound in foreign tourist arrivals—continued to weigh on activity.
- Inflation remained subdued, mainly due to supply-side factors such as lower energy and raw food prices, and partly reflecting soft demand.
- Credit growth is constrained, and financial conditions remain tight.
- Thailand’s external stability remains robust, supported by ample international reserves and moderate levels of external debt.
- Authorities’ policy responses:
- Targeted fiscal measures to support vulnerable groups and bolster consumption.
- Additional monetary policy easing.
- Initiatives to facilitate household debt restructuring.
- Liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises.
- Renewed efforts to strengthen fiscal discipline.
Executive Board Assessment — key messages
- Overall:
- Executive Directors noted that Thailand’s economy has shown resilience in an uncertain global environment but is now facing increasing headwinds.
- In the context of limited policy space, Directors underscored the importance of a carefully calibrated policy mix, building on the recent reform momentum, to support the recovery while safeguarding stability, alongside accelerated structural reforms to lift medium-term growth and facilitate external rebalancing.
- Fiscal policy:
- Given the narrowing fiscal space, fiscal support should remain targeted and parsimonious, anchored in a credible medium‑term consolidation strategy.
- Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal prudence as reflected in the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework and stressed that effective implementation remains key.
- Need to raise revenues to rebuild buffers and create space for growth‑enhancing spending and strengthened social protection.
- Strengthening the fiscal rules framework and public financial and debt management would enhance policy credibility and effectiveness.
- Monetary policy and exchange rate:
- Directors welcomed the accommodative monetary policy stance to support domestic demand and mitigate downside risks to inflation.
- They generally saw scope for additional data-dependent monetary easing, supported by continued efforts to strengthen policy transmission, including measures to address elevated household debt.
- Importance of continued monetary-fiscal policy coordination, while safeguarding central bank independence.
- The exchange rate should continue to serve as a key shock absorber, with foreign exchange intervention limited to restoring orderly market conditions under non-fundamental shocks.
- Financial sector and supervision:
- Systemic risks in the financial sector remain contained but require continued close monitoring amid tight financial conditions and elevated credit risks.
- Calls for further efforts to strengthen regulation and supervision, including of savings cooperatives.
- Facilitate orderly household debt restructuring and support SMEs, while maintaining strong governance and mitigating moral hazard.
- Continue strengthening the AML/CFT framework.
- Structural reforms:
- A deteriorating external environment underscores the need for decisive actions to accelerate structural reforms.
- Priorities include deepening trade and financial integration, improving labor productivity by reinvigorating structural transformation, reducing informality, advancing export sophistication, strengthening social safety nets, enhancing the business environment and governance, and advancing Thailand’s climate agenda.
Key statistics and projections (selected figures preserved exactly)
- Per capita GDP (2024): US$7,347
- Exchange Rate (2024): 35.29 Baht/USD
- Unemployment rate (2024): 1 percent
- Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (2022): 5.4 percent
- Net FDI (2024): US$ 6.95 billion
- Population (2024): 71.67 million
- Real GDP growth (y/y percent change):
- 2020: -6.1
- 2021: 1.5
- 2022: 2.6
- 2023: 2.0
- 2024: 2.5
- 2025: 2.1
- 2026: 1.6
- Consumption (annual % change):
- 2020: -0.3
- 2021: 1.3
- 2022: 4.8
- 2023: 4.3
- 2024: 4.0
- 2025: 1.7
- Gross fixed investment (annual % change):
- 2020: -4.8
- 2021: 3.1
- 2022: 2.2
- 2023: 1.2
- 2024: -0.1
- 2025: 2.7
- 2026: 0.9
- Inflation indicators (selected):
- Headline CPI (end of period): 5.9 (2020); -0.8 (2021); 0.8 (2022)
- Headline CPI (period average): 6.1 (2020); 0.4 (2021)
- Core CPI (end of period): 0.2 (2020); 0.3 (2021); 3.2 (2022); 0.6 (2023); 1.1 (2024)
- Core CPI (period average): (series present in table)
- Saving and investment (percent of GDP):
- Gross domestic investment: 23.8 (2020); 28.7 (2021); 27.9 (2022); 22.5 (2023); 21.6 (2024); 18.3 (2025); 20.6 (2026)
- Private: 16.8 (2020); 17.0 (2021); 17.3 (2022); 16.5 (2023); 16.4 (2024); 16.4 (2025)
- Public: 6.4 (2020); 6.5 (2021); 5.7 (2022); 6.0 (2023)
- Change in stocks:
- 2020: 0.5
- 2021: 5.2
- 2022: 4.5
- 2023: -0.5
- 2024: -0.7
- 2025: -4.2
- 2026: -1.9
- Gross national saving:
- 2020: 26.5
- 2021: 24.4
- 2022: 24.1
- 2023: 20.2
- Private, including statistical discrepancy (selected years):
- 2020: 28.2
- 2021: 27.6
- 2022: 23.1
- 2023: 20.5
- 2024: 20.3
- 2025: 17.7
- Foreign saving (selected series entries): -4.1; 3.4; -1.6; -2.2; -2.3
- Fiscal accounts (percent of GDP) (selected):
- General government balance: -4.5 (2020); -6.7 (2021); -4.6 (2022); -1.3 (2023)
- SOEs balance: -0.4 (2020); -0.6 (2021); -0.2 (2022)
- Public sector balance: -5.6 (2020); -7.1 (2021); -5.2 (2022); -2.5 (2023)
- Public sector debt (end of period): 49.4 (2020); 58.3 (2021); 60.5 (2022); 62.3 (2023); 63.2 (2024); 64.8 (2025); 66.8 (2026)
- Monetary accounts (end of period, y/y percent change) (selected):
- Broad money growth: 10.2 (2020); 3.9 (2021); 1.9 (2022); 3.0 (2023)
- Narrow money growth: 14.2 (2020); 14.0 (2021); 4.2 (2022); 4.7 (2023); 5.0 (2024)
- Balance of payments (billions of U.S. dollars) (selected):
- Current account balance: 20.7 (2020); -10.8 (2021); -17.0 (2022); 8.5 (2023); 11.6 (2024); 13.5 (2025); 9.1 (2026)
- Exports of goods, f.o.b. (levels): 227.0 (2020); 270.6 (2021); 285.2 (2022); 280.7 (2023); 297.3 (2024); 324.9 (2025); 317.6 (2026)
- Imports of goods, f.o.b. (levels): 186.6 (2020); 238.6 (2021); 271.6 (2022); 261.6 (2023); 275.9 (2024); 303.7 (2025); 303.6 (2026)
- Capital and financial account balance (selected): -2.4; 3.7; 6.8; -5.9; -9.1
- Gross official reserves (billions of U.S. dollars): 258.1 (2020); 246.0 (2021); 216.6 (2022); 224.5 (2023); 237.0 (2024); 281.9 (2025)
- Reserves (Months of following year's imports): 13.0 (2020); 10.9 (2021); 9.9 (2022); 9.8 (2023); 11.1 (2024); 10.8 (2025)
- External debt (percent of GDP): 38.0 (2020); 38.9 (2021); 40.6 (2022); 38.1 (2023); 37.1 (2024); 36.5 (2025); 37.4 (2026)
- External debt (in billions of U.S. dollars): 190.1 (2020); 196.9 (2021); 201.4 (2022); 196.5 (2023); 195.4 (2024); 210.8 (2025); 216.0 (2026)
- Public sector (selected): 37.2 (2020); 41.5 (2021); 41.2 (2022); 35.8 (2023); 33.9 (2024); 37.8 (2025)
- Private sector (selected): 152.9 (2020); 155.4 (2021); 160.3 (2022); 160.7 (2023); 161.5 (2024); 173.0 (2025); 174.8 (2026)
- Medium- and long-term: 79.4 (2020); 82.3 (2021); 80.3 (2022); 75.3 (2023); 80.6 (2024); 81.2 (2025)
- Short-term (including portfolio flows): 73.5 (2020); 73.1 (2021); 78.0 (2022); 80.4 (2023); 86.3 (2024); 92.3 (2025); 93.5 (2026)
- Debt service ratio: 7.5 (2020); 6.3 (2021); 7.3 (2022); 7.8 (2023); 7.1 (2024)
- Memorandum items:
- Nominal GDP (billions of baht): 15661.3 (2020); 16186.6 (2021); 17378.0 (2022); 17954.7 (2023); 18582.7 (2024); 18963.6 (2025); 19341.2 (2026)
- Output Gap (in percent of potential output): -2.0 (selected series entry)
Risks, scenarios, and policy implications
- Risks to the outlook remain elevated and tilted to the downside.
- Downside risks include prolonged trade policy uncertainty, global financial market volatility, and domestic political developments, which could further weigh on growth and inflation.
- Upside scenario: A swift resolution of trade tensions or easing domestic uncertainty could support a recovery in growth.
- Policy implications emphasized by Directors:
- Maintain targeted and parsimonious fiscal support within a credible medium‑term consolidation strategy; raise revenues to rebuild buffers and enable growth-enhancing spending and stronger social protection.
- Continue accommodative, data-dependent monetary policy while strengthening transmission and addressing elevated household debt; preserve central bank independence and coordinate with fiscal policy.
- Use exchange rate flexibility as a shock absorber; limit FX intervention to restoring orderly market conditions under non-fundamental shocks.
- Strengthen financial regulation and supervision, facilitate orderly household debt restructuring, support SMEs with governance safeguards, and improve AML/CFT frameworks.
- Accelerate structural reforms to deepen trade and financial integration, improve labor productivity and export sophistication, reduce informality, enhance business environment and governance, strengthen social safety nets, and advance the climate agenda.
Source: IMF — "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Thailand" (Press Release No. 26/048), February 13, 2026.