Shaping Asia’s Future

IMF News, March 5, 2026

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Opening Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the Asia in 2050 Conference in Bangkok, Thailand, March 5, 2026.
Conference framed as occurring amid "global transformations in technology, demographics, trade, and geopolitics; a time of shocks and uncertainty."
IMF role: "guardian of international economic and financial stability"—monitoring the new conflict in the Middle East and assessing regional and global economic ramifications to be reflected in the World Economic Outlook to be published next month.
Participation and logistics: co-host Governor Vitai; gratitude to the government of South Korea for financial support; anticipation of IMF Annual Meetings in October with delegations of the IMF’s 191 member countries.
Narrative framing: "uncertainty is the new normal" and the need for policymakers and private sector to combine robust strategies, financial strength, and agility.

Historical achievements:
- Last quarter century described as "Asia’s golden hour."
- Progress included new policy frameworks, financial sector oversight, official reserves, and trust leading to: financial stability, low inflation, FDI, technology upgrades, trade, private sector-led growth, jobs, and unprecedented poverty reduction.
- China and India highlighted as having "lifted hundreds of millions of people out of subsistence."
Current aggregate indicators cited:
- Asia generates two-thirds of global GDP growth.
- Asia accounts for almost 40 percent of world trade.
Outlook framing: "Asia has created excellent initial conditions for continued success" looking forward to the year 2050.

Finding/projection:
- IMF estimate: AI could boost annual GDP growth by up to 0.8 percentage points, depending on its productivity impact and interaction with labor.
Required investments and enabling conditions:
- Large-scale public and private investment to deliver technology and prepare economies (digital infrastructure, internet connectivity, skills enhancement).
- Good policies to: educate and train; remove undue regulatory barriers; allow firms a fresh start where appropriate; deepen stock and bond markets to support private risk-taking; put appropriate AI guardrails in place.
Regional performance highlights:
- Singapore: top of IMF index of AI preparedness.
- China and Korea: lead in AI adoption and model design.
- India: "paving a path to democratizing AI at home and abroad."
- Japan: seasoned user of AI in robotics.
- Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand: have new out-of-court debt restructuring mechanisms to help struggling firms.
Policy recommendation: "keep it up!"—continue investment, skills, market-deepening, and regulatory frameworks.

IMF research finding:
- Not everyone will benefit from AI: demand for high- and low-skilled jobs will increase, while many middle-skilled positions could be negatively affected; particular concern for entry-level jobs that include routine, easy-to-automate tasks, with implications for young people.
Skills and labor policies:
- Emphasis on adaptable workforces and lifelong learning ("learning to learn").
- Singapore highlighted for efforts in workforce adaptability as central to AI preparedness.
Demographic projections and implications:
- By 2050, the number of Asians aged 65 or more will have doubled.
- Regional variation:
- Japan: aging well advanced.
- China, Korea, and some others: younger on average but aging rapidly.
- India, Bangladesh, and several ASEAN member countries: will still see rising young populations for some time.
- Policy differentiation recommended: some countries should focus on labor force participation; others on job creation.
Structural shifts:
- Technology and aging together will increase the share of service sector jobs (from AI-enhanced professions to old-age care) and enable more remote/virtual tasks.
- Question raised about future urbanization patterns and whether agglomeration benefits from past urban migration will persist or give way to a more dispersed workforce.

Historical role:
- Exports and imports have driven Asia’s growth since the 1960s.
Current headwinds:
- Multipolar world and successive policy shocks make openness a vulnerability in some respects; export-to-GDP ratios vary across Asian countries.
- Trade is reconfiguring but remains resilient: "trade is like water: try to obstruct it, and it finds a way to flow around the barrier."
IMF analysis and projection:
- A push for closer trade links focused on lowering nontariff barriers could on average raise Asian GDP by 1.8 percent in the long run.
Integration agenda and examples:
- Ambition for Asia to pursue regional integration comparable in aspiration to the EU—building an internal market across many countries to support domestic demand and global strength.
- Digital services as a facilitator: Asia leads the world in mobile broadband subscriptions and has advantages in digital payments.
- ASEAN example: one of the world’s most innovative and interconnected cross-border mobile payment networks.
IMF operational note:
- IMF will spotlight Asia’s leading role in digital payment innovations by featuring safe and inclusive digital finance as a key theme at the upcoming Annual Meetings.

Strategic imperative: focus on what is within Asia’s control—build on past successes, ask the right questions, prepare answers, and act.
Policy priorities summarized:
- Invest in digital infrastructure, connectivity, and skills.
- Remove undue regulatory barriers and deepen financial markets to support private risk-taking.
- Implement AI guardrails and support workforce adaptability.
- Pursue differentiated demographic and labor policies across countries.
- Push for deeper regional integration, lowering nontariff barriers, and leveraging digital services and payments.
Vision for 2050:
- Expectation and hope for a "vastly more interconnected region: energetic, dynamic, and prosperous," with many more countries achieving advanced-economy status and overcoming the "middle-income trap."
Closing exhortation: "Asia: you have performed incredible feats in the last 25 years—please, focus on what is within your power to do, and achieve the same and much more in the next quarter century! The future is yours to take!"

Opening Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the Asia in 2050 Conference, March 5, 2026.