Press Briefing Transcript: Global Financial Stability Report, Spring Meetings 2026

IMF News, April 15, 2026

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Findings:
- Financial markets have been resilient so far despite the war in the Middle East; markets have shown bouts of volatility rather than sustained draw‑downs and there have not been the margin calls and forced deleveraging seen in some prior episodes.
- Structural improvements and policy support have helped market functioning, including central clearing and central banks providing liquidity facilities.
- Banks remain well‑capitalized and liquid; “the banking system is not a worry at this particular juncture.”
- Main vulnerabilities identified: elevated public debt and private debt, rollover risk, Bank‑Sovereign Nexus, and the growing presence of leveraged investors in bond markets.
Policy recommendations:
- Monitor how vulnerabilities evolve closely.
- Take macroprudential actions where necessary.
- Maintain strong oversight of banks and non‑banks.
- Be operationally ready to inject liquidity.
Observation on investor flows:
- Non‑banks have stepped in as major buyers of government debt as issuance increased.

Findings:
- Limited policy space in many countries after several years of using policy to support stability: “the policy space has been drawn down in many countries.”
- Non‑bank flows dominate emerging market financing and can be subject to shifts in global risk appetite.
- About 80 countries have introduced measures to save on energy.
Country and regional notes:
- Egypt: exchange rate adjustment has acted as a shock absorber; greater exchange rate flexibility, tighter monetary policy, and better fiscal policy improved resilience.
- Russia: fiscal policy room has diminished; non‑performing loans have risen though aggregate non‑performing loans remain at a “fairly moderate level” per available remarks; a more granular assessment is needed.
- Africa / sub‑Saharan Africa: many countries have IMF programs addressing debt situations; debt sustainability and fiscal position are foundational.
- Senegal: reported debt‑to‑GDP “up to 118 to 132 percent.”
Policy guidance:
- For oil exporters vs importers: heterogenous impacts—exporters may benefit fiscally but still face inflationary effects; importers face larger challenges.
- Central banks: the “option value of waiting” is often high given uncertainty; act decisively if inflation and inflation expectations clearly move up.

Market‑based assessment:
- Higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict have increased inflation expectations; market pricing indicates the expected inflation impact is “somewhat contained in time,” with expectations “coming back down” three, four, five years out.
IMF scenario framework (as described in the briefing):
- Reference scenario: temporary oil price shock; some central banks may “look through” it or wait.
- Adverse scenario: larger, more persistent inflationary impact → central banks likely to hike.
- Severe scenario: persistent inflation plus tightening financial conditions → country‑specific trade‑offs between inflation control and real activity.
Practical guidance:
- Central banks should consider country‑specific evidence on inflation persistence, pass‑through to core inflation, and inflation expectations before tightening.

Key statistics and structure:
- Total direct lending universe of private credit globally: “about $2 trillion.”
- Estimated semiliquid portion: “about 15 percent or $300 billion” in semiliquid structures where investors can redeem.
- Current default rates: “perhaps between 2 to 3 percent.”
- Under adverse scenarios, default rates could rise to “4, 5, or 6 percent.”
Findings:
- The IMF’s analysis in the GFSR models deterioration scenarios for private credit and considers redemptions, default rate increases, and cross‑sector exposures.
- Many private credit funds have gates; gating has contained redemption risk to date.
- Insurance companies and pension funds hold some private credit—aggregate exposure seen as “fairly manageable to date.”
Risks and thresholds to watch:
- If a larger share of private credit becomes redeemable, systemic risk would rise.
- A broad deterioration in the global credit cycle that also affects bank loan books would increase stress.
Policy implications:
- Monitor redemption risk and liquidity characteristics of private credit vehicles.
- Continue assessing interconnectedness between private credit and regulated financial institutions.

Findings:
- AI presents both opportunities and risks; cybersecurity risk in AI‑related systems is emphasized.
- IMF has supported member agencies on cybersecurity for “over eight years.”
- Data centers’ energy demands can affect local energy prices; impact depends on location and local elasticities of supply.
- Unclear at present whether oil price shock materially affects hyperscalers’ ability to raise debt (example cited: Amazon bond issuance of “about $54 billion” in March).
Recommendations:
- Stay at the frontier of threats and be proactive on policy frameworks for cybersecurity and operational readiness.
- Manage AI‑related operational and systemic risks through regulation and preparedness.

Middle East:
- Heterogeneous country effects depending on energy exporter/importer status and direct war impacts on infrastructure.
- Policymakers in several Middle Eastern countries have injected liquidity to support functioning markets.
Dollar bond issuance and emerging market spreads:
- EM spreads widened by “a modest amount, 30 to 40 basis points.”
- No widespread evidence that countries in the region are locked out of dollar bond issuance; issuance has continued.
Capital flows:
- Since the start of the Middle East war, capital flow reactions have been larger in quantity—“roughly twice as large” compared to the early months of the Ukraine war—while price moves have been relatively contained.

Payments and settlement:
- Clearing and settlement systems are distinct: clearing messaging systems are broadly used, settlement is more dispersed and subject to innovation and fragmentation.
- Central banks, banks, fintech, and private payment providers are active in improving cross‑border payments.
Anti‑money laundering and crypto:
- Integrity of payments is critical; IMF and partners have policy frameworks for crypto assets and support members in phasing in regulatory frameworks to ensure compliance.
Hedge funds and government bond markets:
- Non‑banks (including hedge funds) have become major buyers of sovereign debt over recent years.
- Policy focus includes enhancing market structure via central clearing and central bank backstops to strengthen government bond market resilience.

Press Briefing Transcript: Global Financial Stability Report, Spring Meetings 2026, April 14, 2026 — IMF Communications Department