Press Briefing Transcript: Asia-Pacific Department, Spring Meetings 2026
IMF News, April 16, 2026
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- Published: April 16, 2026
Regional growth and resilience
- Asia entered 2026 "on a solid footing" with growth "remaining resilient" despite U.S. tariffs and heightened uncertainty.
- Regional growth projections:
- 5 percent in 2025
- 4.4 percent in 2026
- 4.2 percent in 2027
- Drivers of recent strength:
- Exports and consumption held up better than anticipated, supported by accommodative policies and financial conditions.
- Export strength driven by robust demand for tech goods and trade diversification toward the rest of the world (Asia’s exports to the U.S. declined but exports to the rest of the world increased).
- Investment remained soft in many economies amid uncertainty and country-specific shocks.
- Risks to the outlook are "firmly to the downside."
Energy shock: exposure, transmission, and scenarios
- Asia’s exposure to the energy shock rests on three channels:
- High energy intensity: oil and gas use amounts to about 4 percent of GDP for the region as a whole (nearly double Europe’s share).
- Oil and gas use exceeds 10 percent of GDP in Malaysia and Thailand.
- Oil and gas use is 2 percent of GDP in Australia and New Zealand.
- Import dependence: net oil and gas imports amount to about 2.5 percent of GDP for the region, rising to about 8 percent for some economies such as Singapore and Thailand.
- Non-energy input exposures: disruptions of fertilizers and petrochemical inputs (such as helium and sulfur) can create broader supply chain pressures.
- World Economic Outlook (WEO) adverse scenarios to quantify risks:
- Adverse scenario (larger, more persistent increase in energy prices):
- Oil prices rise to about 60 percent above the January forecast in 2026 and remain 20 percent higher in 2027.
- Leads to a cumulative output loss of about 0.8 percent by 2027 for the major Asian economies and to higher inflation.
- Severe scenario (more persistent and damaging, with second-round effects):
- Cumulative output losses of almost 2 percent by 2027.
- Energy-exposed economies, especially in some South and Southeast Asia economies, will be hit the hardest.
Inflation and external balances
- Inflation projections:
- 1.4 percent in 2025
- 2.6 percent in 2026
- 2.4 percent in 2027
- The energy shock is raising inflation, weakening external balances, tightening financial conditions, and narrowing policy space.
Monetary policy guidance
- Near-term priority: absorb the shock while preserving space and price signals; monetary policy should remain agile.
- Current assessment:
- Inflation expectations remain broadly anchored in 2027, giving central banks some room to look through the first-round rise in headline inflation.
- Country-differentiated guidance:
- Japan: central bank can "look through" the first round of the energy shock and continue withdrawing accommodation.
- Australia: scope to look through the shock is more limited where inflation is already above target and pressures remain firm.
- Thailand and the Philippines: where inflation remains below target, further rate cuts can be paused to preserve room for easing later.
- Exchange rates:
- Important to allow flexible exchange rates to facilitate macroeconomic adjustment and be guided by the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework should movements become excessive or disorderly.
Fiscal policy guidance
- Fiscal policy requires a careful balancing act given rising interest costs, higher debt levels, and narrower fiscal space.
- Principles for fiscal support:
- Where needed, support should be temporary and targeted to vulnerable households and viable firms, with sunset clauses.
- Support should preserve fiscal price signals and be budget neutral (offsetting savings elsewhere or new revenue measures).
- Broad fuel subsidies, tax cuts, and general price caps are costly, distortionary, often regressive, and hard to unwind.
- Emphasis on coherence between monetary and fiscal policies.
Structural reform agenda and medium-term priorities
- The shock strengthens the case for structural reform rather than weakening it.
- Key structural issues highlighted:
- Persistently elevated youth unemployment despite strong investment in education; mismatch between education systems and labor market needs.
- AI offers sizable gains in growth and productivity, but faster adoption than skill adjustment could worsen skill mismatches and labour market pressures, especially for young workers.
- Recommended reforms:
- Rethink education and reskilling; make universities and technical programs more responsive to employer demand.
- Strengthen social safety nets to protect vulnerable households without generalized subsidies.
- Strengthen domestic final demand and deepen regional integration to reduce dependence on external demand.
- Invest in alternative energy sources, energy efficiency, and power grids to reduce vulnerability to future fuel import shocks.
- Medium-term task: build "a more resilient, more balanced, and more inclusive growth model."
Country-specific notes and examples
- China:
- Growth forecast lowered to 4.4 percent (from 5 percent in 2025) and slows further in 2027.
- Momentum helped by lower tariffs vs earlier expectations and stronger-than-expected Q1 data; upside potential exists.
- Policy advice unchanged: rebalance toward greater consumption; cannot rely on export-led growth going forward.
- IMF advice: allow more exchange rate flexibility to act as a shock absorber and improve monetary transmission.
- Japan:
- Growth and inflation outlook:
- Growth was 1.2 percent in 2025.
- Projected 0.7 percent in 2026 and 0.6 percent in 2027.
- Domestic demand holding up; real wage growth positive; advice is to be data-dependent and gradually withdraw accommodation.
- India:
- Forecast modestly increased by 0.1 percentage point (relative to prior forecast).
- Momentum entering 2026 was strong; tariffs lowered from 50 to 10 percent contributed to activity.
- Prudence on fiscal side noted; buffers built over years, but an intensifying shock would be disruptive.
- Philippines:
- Growth projection for 2026 cut to 4.1 percent from 5.6 percent in January; 5.8 percent projected for 2027.
- Momentum into 2026 was weaker; governance issues and high energy intensity amplify the shock’s impact.
- Fiscal advice: use limited buffers efficiently; prioritize targeted, temporary support.
- Korea:
- Starts from strong macro conditions and benefits from a tech cycle; substantial energy buffers and proactive mitigation measures help.
- Outlook sensitive to the duration and severity of the oil shock; adverse/severe scenarios would materially change the picture.
- Thailand and ASEAN:
- Heterogeneity across ASEAN in energy intensity and buffers.
- Thailand’s public debt cited at "about 65 to 66 percent"; comparable levels in Malaysia and the Philippines.
- Fiscal advice for ASEAN: apply the same principles—targeted temporary support, preserve price signals, and remain agile on monetary policy if inflation expectations unanchor.
- Sri Lanka:
- Sri Lanka relies on energy imports and is vulnerable to the shock.
- Since the crisis, revenue as a share of GDP has increased (described as having "doubled from the bottom of the crisis"), improving fiscal buffers relative to the crisis nadir.
- IMF stands ready to support with policy advice, capacity development, and financial assistance as needed; continuation of reforms is important.
- Bangladesh:
- Energy-import exposure makes Bangladesh vulnerable to the shock.
- Revenue intake is "on the lower side" and has "slipped over the last three years"; significant work needed to improve revenue collection and financial sector impediments.
- IMF engagement and negotiations ongoing; policy support and program discussions continue.
- Nepal:
- Nepal has a pegged exchange rate to the Indian rupee; IMF advice:
- Let the exchange rate be a shock absorber generally, but for established pegs the recommendation is to keep the peg and "reconsider the exchange rate in good times, not in times of vulnerabilities or stresses."
- Nepal has built some fiscal buffers through reforms and can use targeted, limited measures to absorb the shock.
- IMF continues surveillance, policy advice, capacity development, and program engagement (a Staff-Level Agreement on the Seventh Review was recently concluded and the program will go to the Board).
- Pacific Island countries and small states:
- Particularly vulnerable due to high import dependence, distance, logistics, and limited buffers.
- IMF recommends using buffers wisely, proactively managing supply chains (forward procurement), working with partner countries, and tailoring policy buffers to country circumstances.
IMF readiness and programs
- IMF has programs in four countries in the region and is engaging intensively (policy advice and program support) with member countries.
- As of the briefing, no new program requests had been publicly announced, but the IMF stands ready to provide policy advice, capacity development, and financial assistance where needed.
- Emphasis on targeted, temporary measures with sunset clauses and budget neutrality where fiscal space is limited.
Transcript of Press Briefing: Asia and Pacific Department, Spring Meetings 2026.