IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Angola
IMF News, May 1, 2026
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- Published: May 1, 2026
Recent developments and 2025–early 2026 outcomes
- The Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation for Angola and discussed the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) exercise for Angola.
- Authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
- Overall growth held up at 3.1 percent in 2025, partly supported by public spending.
- Inflation continued to ease to 12.4 percent in March 2026, partly due to tight monetary policy.
- A significant decline in oil production weakened fiscal and external positions in 2025.
- Fiscal outcomes in 2025:
- Overall fiscal deficit: -4.1 percent of GDP.
- Lower oil revenues and expenditure slippages contributed to the deficit.
- External sector in 2025:
- Preliminary current account balance: 0.4 percent of GDP.
- Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) international reserves as of end-2025: 7.4 months of import cover.
- Recent surge in oil prices has improved Angola’s access to international markets and is projected to provide a temporary offset to declining oil revenues.
Medium-term outlook and risks
- Medium-term outlook remains subdued, reflecting a structural decline in oil revenues; economic growth depends on the success of diversification efforts.
- The 2026 budget envisages fiscal consolidation and reaffirms commitment to prudent debt management while addressing critical spending needs.
- Gross financing needs are projected to rise, with public debt reaching the ceiling under the Fiscal Sustainability Law in the medium term.
- Downside risks:
- Declines in oil revenues.
- Intensification of spending pressures during the temporary oil price hike.
- Tighter global financial conditions.
- Upside risks:
- Stronger-than-expected oil production amid elevated oil prices.
- An easing of global financial conditions.
Executive Board assessment
- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal.
- Welcomed sustained growth in 2025 despite the decline in oil production, noted easing inflation and improved market access.
- Emphasized the need to maintain prudent policies and advance structural reforms to support growth and economic diversification.
- Fiscal policy guidance from Directors:
- Welcome commitment to adjust expenditure under the 2026 budget to reduce the fiscal deficit.
- Emphasize sustained fiscal consolidation consistent with the Fiscal Sustainability Law.
- Recommend that any oil windfall be used to reduce debt and build buffers.
- Priorities: improve spending efficiency, accelerate revenue mobilization, advance fuel subsidy reform while protecting the most vulnerable, strengthen public financial management, advance state‑owned enterprise reform, and prudent debt management.
- Monetary and exchange rate guidance:
- Broad support for maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to sustain disinflation.
- Recommend efforts to strengthen monetary policy implementation.
- Call for measures to increase exchange rate flexibility and ensure full and durable alignment with the market clearing rate.
- Stress the need for a transparent, rules based foreign exchange intervention framework to address excessive exchange rate volatility while preserving reserves and price discovery.
- Financial sector guidance:
- Welcome progress in strengthening regulatory and supervisory frameworks in line with the 2025 FSAP; note remaining gaps.
- Call for measures to reduce banking sector vulnerabilities and mitigate risks from the sovereign–bank nexus, legacy nonperforming loans, and foreign exchange liquidity imbalances.
- Encourage strengthening risk‑based supervision, operationalizing the bank resolution framework and the financial safety net, and decisively resolving problem banks.
- Underscore the need for prompt implementation of the FATF Action Plan to support timely exit from the FATF grey list.
- Encourage efforts to deepen financial intermediation and improve financial infrastructure to support private sector‑led growth.
- Structural reform priorities:
- Strengthen governance, streamline business regulations, improve access to credit, and liberalize the exchange rate market to attract foreign investment.
- Next Article IV consultation expected on the standard 12 month cycle.
Key policy recommendations (summarized)
- Sustain fiscal consolidation consistent with the Fiscal Sustainability Law.
- Use oil windfalls to reduce debt and build buffers.
- Improve spending efficiency and accelerate revenue mobilization.
- Advance fuel subsidy reform with protection for the vulnerable.
- Strengthen public financial management and state‑owned enterprise reform.
- Maintain tight monetary policy and strengthen implementation.
- Increase exchange rate flexibility and adopt a transparent, rules based FX intervention framework.
- Strengthen banking supervision, operationalize resolution framework and financial safety net, resolve problem banks.
- Implement FATF Action Plan to exit FATF grey list.
- Promote structural reforms to diversify the economy and attract private investment.
Selected economic indicators, 2025–27 (selected figures)
- Real economy (percent change)
- Real gross domestic product: 2025 = 3.1; 2026 = 2.3; 2027 = 2.6
- Oil sector: 2025 = -5.2; 2026 = 1.6; 2027 = 0.0
- Non-oil sector: 2025 = 5.2; 2026 = 2.4; 2027 = 3.2
- Consumer prices
- Consumer prices (annual average): 2025 = 20.2; 2026 = 12.9; 2027 = 12.8
- Consumer prices (end of period): 2025 = 15.7; 2026 = 13.1; 2027 = 11.2
- Investment and savings (percent of GDP)
- National savings: 2025 = 13.6; 2026 = 13.0; 2027 = 13.0
- Gross investment: 2025 = 12.5; 2026 = 11.4; 2027 = 12.0
- Private investment: 2025 = 7.2; 2026 = 7.6; 2027 = 7.9
- Saving-investment balance: 2025 = 0.4; 2026 = 2.2; 2027 = 1.0
- Budgetary central government (percent of GDP)
- Total revenue: 2025 = 14.8; 2026 = 14.4
- Of which: Oil-related revenue: 2025 = 8.5; 2026 = 6.7
- Of which: Non-oil tax: 2025 = 6.3; 2026 = 6.8; 2027 = 7.0
- Total expenditure: 2025 = 18.9; 2026 = 16.8; 2027 = 17.2
- Current expenditure (percent of GDP): 2025 = 5.3; 2026 = 3.7; 2027 = 4.1 (labeled "Capital spending" in source)
- Overall fiscal balance: 2025 = -4.1; 2026 = -2.4; 2027 = -3.6
- Non-oil primary fiscal balance: 2025 = -8.9; 2026 = -6.3; 2027 = -6.5
- Money and credit
- Broad money (M2, end of period, percent change): 2025 = 14.0; 2026 = 14.5; 2027 = 14.5
- Percent of GDP (M2): 2025 = 13.8; 2026 = 14.2; 2027 = 14.6
- Velocity (GDP/M2): 2025 = 7.3; 2026 = 7.1; 2027 = 6.9
- Credit to the private sector (annual percent change): 2025 = 11.6; 2026 = 11.3
- Balance of payments and reserves
- Trade balance (percent of GDP): 2025 = 10.6; 2026 = 13.2; 2027 = 13.2
- Exports of goods, f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 2025 = 21.6; 2026 = 24.0; 2027 = 21.7
- Of which: Oil and gas exports (percent of GDP): 2025 = 19.9; 2026 = 22.4; 2027 = 20.0
- Imports of goods, f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 2025 = 10.9; 2026 = 10.8; 2027 = 10.5
- Terms of trade (percent change): 2025 = -17.4; 2026 = -9.6
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2025 = 0.4
- Gross international reserves (end of period, millions of U.S. dollars): 2025 = 15,895; 2026 = 16,195; 2027 = 15,695
- Gross international reserves (months of next year's imports): 2025 = 7.4; 2026 = 7.7
- Exchange rate
- Official exchange rate (average, kwanzas per U.S. dollar): 2025 = 912; 2026 = …
- Official exchange rate (end of period, kwanzas per U.S. dollar): 2025 = 923
- Public debt (percent of GDP)
- Public sector debt (gross)1: 2025 = 51.3; 2026 = 51.6; 2027 = 53.5
- Central Government debt: 2025 = 48.8; 2026 = 49.8; 2027 = 53.7
- External debt: 2025 = 36.3; 2026 = 36.2; 2027 = 37.5
- Oil sector
- Oil production (millions of barrels per day): 2025 = 1.03; 2026 = 1.05; 2027 = 1.05
- Oil and gas exports (billions of U.S. dollars): 2025 = 28.1; 2026 = 34.1; 2027 = 30.8
- Angola oil price (average, U.S. dollars per barrel): 2025 = 67.2; 2026 = 79.1; 2027 = 70.4
- Brent oil price (average, U.S. dollars per barrel): 2025 = 68.3; 2026 = 80.2; 2027 = 71.5
IMF Communications Department, May 1, 2026.