IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Georgia
IMF News, June 10, 2026
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 10, 2026
Main findings and recent developments
- Real GDP expanded by 7.5 percent in 2025 and remained strong in early 2026.
- Inflation rose above target, reaching 5.9 percent in April 2026.
- Fiscal and external buffers strengthened: reserves reached the IMF’s adequacy threshold and public debt declined below 35 percent of GDP.
- The economy remained resilient amid heightened global uncertainty, including from the war in the Middle East.
- The authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report prepared for the consultation.
Baseline projections and scenarios (assumes Middle East war is resolved soon)
- Growth:
- Projected to moderate to 6.5 percent in 2026.
- Gradually converging to medium-term potential rate of 5 percent by 2028.
- Inflation:
- Expected to return to target by mid-2027.
- Public debt and reserves:
- Public debt expected to remain near current levels with continued prudent monetary and fiscal policies.
- Reserve coverage projected to strengthen further.
Executive Board assessment and policy guidance
- General assessment:
- Directors commended good macroeconomic performance, sound macroeconomic management, strong growth, improved fiscal and external buffers, and a sound financial sector.
- Noted inflation above target and persistent structural challenges.
- Urged preserving macroeconomic stability while advancing reforms to sustain growth and spur job creation.
- Monetary policy:
- Recent policy rate hike considered appropriate.
- Monetary policy should remain appropriately tight and data‑dependent to bring inflation durably back to target.
- Preserve exchange rate flexibility as a shock absorber.
- Accumulate reserves as conditions allow.
- Support for strengthening governance framework of the NBG to reinforce institutional credibility and policymaking.
- Fiscal policy:
- Authorities’ commitment to fiscal discipline welcomed; medium‑term fiscal plans seen as appropriate to keep public debt at prudent levels.
- Emphasized need to streamline tax expenditures, strengthen mining taxation, and further improve tax administration.
- Enhance spending efficiency to create room for priority spending.
- Targeted support recommended for vulnerable groups if downside risks materialize.
- Advance state‑owned enterprise governance reforms to reduce fiscal risks.
- Financial sector and supervision:
- Banking system resilience welcomed.
- Call for continued vigilance amid risks: rapid credit growth, unhedged foreign exchange exposures, non‑bank financial activities, and digital assets.
- Encourage further efforts on bank resolution and crisis management arrangements, consolidated supervision, and digital‑asset oversight.
- Structural reforms and competitiveness:
- Need to address structural constraints to sustained inclusive growth and job creation.
- Encourage reforms to address high youth unemployment, skills mismatches, and weak work incentives:
- Strengthen vocational education and public employment services.
- Better align social assistance with work incentives.
- Support high‑productivity sectors.
- Support continued investment in logistics, trade facilitation, infrastructure, and deeper regional integration.
- Stress strengthening anti‑corruption and judicial institutions while maintaining a predictable market‑friendly policy environment.
Key statistics and medium-term projections (selected figures from Table 1)
- Real GDP (annual percentage change):
- 2025 Actual: 7.5
- 2026 Projection: 6.5
- 2027 Projection: 5.7
- 2028 Projection: 5.0
- Nominal GDP (in billion of laris):
- 2025 Actual: 104.6
- 2026: 116.9
- 2027: 128.5
- 2028: 139.8
- 2029: 151.8
- 2030: 165.0
- 2031: 179.3
- Nominal GDP (in billion of U.S. dollars):
- 2025 Actual: 38.1
- 2026: 43.5
- 2027: 48.1
- 2028: 52.6
- 2029: 57.6
- 2030: 63.2
- 2031: 69.2
- GDP per capita (in thousand of U.S. dollars):
- 2025: 9.7
- 2026: 11.1
- 2027: 12.3
- 2028: 13.4
- 2029: 14.7
- 2030: 16.1
- 2031: 17.7
- CPI:
- Period average 2025: 3.9
- Period average 2026 projection: 5.3
- Period average 2027 projection: 3.4
- Period average 2028 projection: 3.0
- CPI end-of-period 2025: 5.4
- Consolidated government operations (in percent of GDP):
- Revenue and grants 2025: 27.0; 2026: 26.6; 2027: 26.3; 2028: 26.2; 2029: 26.1; 2030: 26.0
- o.w. Tax revenue 2025: 24.2; 2026: 24.3
- Total Expenditure 2025: 28.4; 2026: 28.9; 2027: 28.6; 2028: 28.5; 2029: 28.3; 2030: 28.2
- Current expenditures 2025: 22.4; 2026: 21.7; 2027: 21.6; 2028: 21.5; 2029: 21.1; 2030: 21.0
- Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets 2025: 6.0; 2026: 7.2; 2027: 7.0
- Net lending/borrowing (GFSM 2001) 2025: -1.5; 2026: -2.3; 2027: -2.2
- Augmented net lending/borrowing 1/ 2025: -1.4
- Public debt (in percent of GDP):
- 2025 Actual: 34.3
- 2026: 33.6
- 2027: 32.8
- 2028: 32.5
- 2029: 31.9
- 2030: 31.7
- o.w. Foreign-currency denominated 2025: 23.2; 2026: 19.6; 2027: 18.1; 2028: 16.6; 2029: 15.0; 2030: 13.7
- Money and credit:
- Credit to the private sector 2025: 13.1; 2026: 13.8; 2027: 10.9; 2028: 8.7
- In constant exchange rate 2025: 14.0
- Broad money 2025: 16.5; 2026: 13.5; 2027: 12.2; 2028: 11.3
- Excluding FX deposits 2025: 25.5
- Deposit dollarization (in percent of total) 2025: 47.7; 2026: 47.4; 2027: 47.2; 2028: 47.0; 2029: 46.8; 2030: 46.5; 2031: 46.3
- Credit dollarization (in percent of total) 2025: 42.4; 2026: 42.2; 2027: 42.0; 2028: 41.8; 2029: 41.6; 2030: 41.4; 2031: 41.2
- Credit to GDP (in percent) 2/ 2025: 65.9; 2026: 67.0; 2027: 67.7
- External sector (in percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated):
- Current account balance (in billions of US$): 2025: -1.0; 2026: -2.5; 2027: -2.7; 2028: -3.2; 2029: -3.4
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2025: -2.6; 2026: -5.0; 2027: -4.5; 2028: -4.7; 2029: -4.8
- Trade balance 2025: -17.9; 2026: -19.0; 2027: -18.7; 2028: -18.9; 2029: -19.1
- Terms of trade (percent change) 2025: -0.2; 2026: 0.0; 2027: -0.5; 2028: -0.6; 2029: -0.7
- Gross international reserves (in billions of US$): 2025: 6.2; 2026: 6.3; 2027: 6.9; 2028: 8.3; 2029: 8.8; 2030: 9.2
- In percent of IMF ARA metric 3/: 2025: 100.0; 2026: 104.9; 2027: 108.9; 2028: 115.4; 2029: 117.9
- In months of next year's imports 2025: 3.2; 2026: 2.9; 2027: 2.8
- Gross external debt 2025: 58.9; 2026: 51.7; 2027: 43.0; 2028: 38.7; 2029: 34.5; 2030: 30.7
Institutional and procedural notes
- It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Georgia will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.
- Footnotes and data sources in the Staff Report: sources listed as Georgian authorities; and Fund staff estimates. Definitions:
- 1/ Augmented Net lending / borrowing = Net lending / borrowing - Budget lending.
- 2/ Banking sector credit to the private sector.
- 3/ IMF's adequacy metric for assessing reserves in emerging markets.
Press Release No. 26/197 — IMF Communications Department, June 10, 2026.