IMF Executive Board Completes the Sixth and Seventh Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement with Tanzania
IMF News, July 10, 2026
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- Published: July 10, 2026
Immediate financing and program status
- The Executive Board completed the final sixth and seventh reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement and the final third and fourth reviews under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement with Tanzania.
- Immediate disbursement: SDR 3249 million (about US$ 443.9 million) under both the ECF and the RSF arrangements.
- ECF-specific disbursement on review completion: SDR 113.37 million (28.5 percent of quota - about US$ 154.1 million), bringing Tanzania’s total access under the ECF arrangement to about US$ 1,063 million.
- RSF-specific disbursement on review completion: SDR 213.12 million (53.5 percent of quota - about US$ 289.7 million), bringing Tanzania’s total access under the RSF arrangement to about US$ 636.5 million.
Program design, duration, and objectives
- ECF Arrangement:
- 40-month Arrangement for total access of SDR 795.58 million (200 percent of quota - about US$ 1,046 million at the time of program approval).
- Initially approved in July 2022; extended by 6 months in June 2024 and by 3 months in May 2026.
- Aims: support economic recovery, preserve macro-financial stability, and promote sustainable and inclusive growth.
- RSF Arrangement:
- 23-month Arrangement approved in June 2024 (150 percent of quota).
- Extended by 3 months in May 2026.
- Aims: support reforms to reduce prospective balance of payments risks and enhance economic resilience to climate change.
Program implementation and conditionality outcomes
- Quantitative and performance criteria:
- All end-June 2025 quantitative performance criteria (QPC) were met.
- All end-September 2025 indicative targets were met, except the domestic primary balance.
- At end-December 2025, all QPCs were met except for the QPC on net domestic assets (authorities requested a waiver).
- All continuous performance criteria (PCs) were met.
- Structural benchmarks and reform measures:
- Four structural benchmarks were implemented on time; three other structural benchmarks were implemented with delay.
- For the RSF third and fourth reviews: five reform measures (RMs) completed; three RMs related to the energy sector were not completed.
- Noted reform non-approvals: VAT administration, central bank governance, and public investment management reforms were not approved.
Macroeconomic performance and outlook
- Growth and inflation:
- Real GDP growth: 5.9 percent in CY25.
- Projected medium-term real GDP growth: about 6.2 percent, assuming a strong outlook for mining, agriculture and tourism.
- Calendar year real GDP growth (percent): 5.7 (2024/25 Act.), 5.9 (2025/26 Est.), 6.0 (2026/27 Proj.).
- Headline inflation: 4.0 percent (year-on-year) in June 2026.
- Monetary and financial indicators:
- Broad money (M3, end of period): 18.7 (24/25), 18.2 (25/26), 16.6 (26/27).
- Credit to the private sector (end of period): 14.5 (24/25).
- Overall T-bill interest rate (percent; end of period): 8.9 (24/25); data for subsequent periods not shown (…).
- External sector and reserves:
- Current account balance: -2.7 (2024/25 Act.), -3.5 (2025/26 Est.).
- Gross international reserves in billions of U.S. dollars: 6.7.
- Exports (goods and services): 20.6 (2024/25), 20.2 (2025/26).
- Imports (goods and services): 21.2 (2024/25), 21.5 (2025/26), 21.9 (2026/27).
- Current account is expected to remain broadly stable in FY2025/26, with gold exports providing a partial offset to import pressures from the war in the Middle East.
- Fiscal sector:
- Revenues and grants (percent of GDP): 16.5 (2024/25), 17.3 (2025/26), 17.5 (2026/27).
- Expenditures (percent of GDP): 19.4 (2024/25), 20.3 (2025/26), 20.4 (2026/27).
- Overall balance (percent of GDP): -3.1 (2024/25), -3.0 (2025/26), -2.9 (2026/27).
- Primary balance (percent of GDP): -0.8 (2024/25), -0.3 (2025/26).
- Despite significant fiscal over-spending in the first quarter of FY2025/26, the end-December QPC for the domestic primary balance was met.
Risks, challenges, and policy recommendations
- Downside risks:
- Increased downside risks, notably a prolonged conflict in the Middle East that could weaken growth and intensify inflation pressures.
- Reform delays could weaken growth prospects and fiscal sustainability.
- Challenges to meet SDG targets and reduce poverty, with population expected to double by 2050.
- Policy recommendations and priorities from the Acting Chair (Mr. Bo Li):
- Continue fiscal consolidation supported by stronger domestic revenue mobilization, VAT refund reforms, and improved public financial management to create space for spending on education and health.
- Strengthen social safety nets to reduce poverty.
- Maintain accommodative monetary policy while the Bank of Tanzania should stand ready to further adjust its stance as needed.
- Monitor persistent inflation pressures from a prolonged fuel supply shock closely.
- Maintain adequate reserve levels and exchange rate flexibility to cushion external shocks.
- Further progress to enhance central bank independence and upgrade the financial supervisory framework.
- Accelerate reforms to strengthen the business environment and support private sector development to ensure sufficient jobs for the rapidly growing population.
- Continue reforms to strengthen resilience to climate change and mobilize climate finance to reduce prospective balance of payments risks.
Key statistics and memoranda (exact values)
- GDP at current prices:
- Trillions of Tanzanian shillings: 217.0 (2024/25 Act.), 240.1 (2025/26 Est.), 267.2 (2026/27 Proj.).
- Millions of U.S. dollars: 83,340 (2024/25 Act.), 92,896 (2025/26 Est.), 100,065 (2026/27 Proj.).
- GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars): 1,258 (2024/25 Act.), 1,332 (2025/26 Est.), 1,393 (2026/27 Proj.).
- Population (million): 69.6 (2024/25 Act.), 71.6 (2025/26 Est.), 73.6 (2026/27 Proj.).
- Public debt:
- Gross nominal debt (percent of GDP): 50.3 (2024/25 Act.), 49.1 (2025/26 Est.), 47.4 (2026/27 Proj.).
- Investment and savings (percent of GDP):
- Investment: 37.3 (2024/25 Act.), 36.3 (2025/26 Est.), 36.8 (2026/27 Proj.).
- Domestic savings: 34.8 (2024/25 Act.), 33.4 (2025/26 Est.), 33.6 (2026/27 Proj.).
Press Release No. 26/244 — IMF Communications Department, July 10, 2026.
