IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Mauritius
IMF News, July 15, 2026
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- Published: July 15, 2026
Overview
- The Mauritian economy remains resilient, with growth of 3.2 percent in 2025 and easing inflation in early 2026.
- Near-term outlook has weakened amid heightened global uncertainty and the war in the Middle East.
- The external current account deficit widened to 7.1 percent of GDP in 2025, while gross international reserves increased to US$10.3 billion, remaining within the advisable range of the IMF’s reserve adequacy metric.
- Public debt reached 86 percent of GDP at end‑June 2025 reflecting a significant fiscal loosening in FY24/25 driven by higher current spending, and is estimated to remain elevated at end-June 2026.
Outlook and Risks
- Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.8 percent in 2026, reflecting adverse spillovers from the war—via weaker tourism and higher commodity prices—before recovering gradually to 3.2 percent over the medium term as higher investment offsets demographic headwinds.
- Inflation is projected to increase significantly in 2026, reaching about 6.4 percent (year‑on‑year) by end‑2026, before moderating toward the midpoint of the Bank of Mauritius’ 2-5 target range over the medium term.
- The external current account deficit is projected to widen to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2026, before narrowing gradually over the medium term.
- Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including heightened global uncertainty, higher energy and food prices, and delays in recalibrating the macroeconomic policy mix.
- Upside risks include a Chagos-related revenue windfall and eased geopolitical tensions.
Fiscal Policy and Public Debt
- Fiscal consolidation is underway; the primary deficit narrowed in FY25/26.
- Under unchanged policies, public debt is expected to remain elevated over the medium term.
- Directors underscored the need to step up fiscal consolidation to place public debt on a declining path and rebuild fiscal buffers.
- Policy recommendations from Directors:
- Contain current spending, including through pension reforms, while protecting the most vulnerable through temporary and well‑targeted support.
- Increase domestic revenue mobilization.
- Use any windfall revenues primarily for public debt reduction.
- Strengthen public financial management and anchor policy in a rules‑based fiscal framework.
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
- Directors agreed monetary policy should remain forward‑looking and stand ready for further tightening if risks of expectations de‑anchoring intensify.
- Need to strengthen the implementation of the monetary policy framework and adopt more forward‑looking communication to enhance policy effectiveness and credibility.
- Directors encouraged the Bank Of Mauritius (BOM) to continue to rely on exchange rate flexibility as a key shock absorber and to use foreign exchange interventions in a limited and targeted manner.
- Importance of safeguarding central bank independence, including through the swift adoption of amendments to the BOM Act and reducing the central bank’s involvement in non‑core activities.
- Financial sector risks appear contained, but close monitoring is necessary on:
- Real estate exposures
- The bank‑sovereign nexus
- Non‑resident and global business companies’ flows
- Adoption of virtual assets
- Directors welcomed steady progress in strengthening the AML/CFT framework and encouraged the authorities to sustain it.
Structural Reforms and Competitiveness
- Structural reforms are needed to enhance competitiveness and reduce external imbalances.
- Priority areas identified by Directors:
- Mobilizing under‑utilized labor resources
- Strengthening the skills and training framework
- Reviving productivity growth by improving the business climate and reducing structural bottlenecks
- Advancing climate adaptation efforts
- Directors welcomed adherence to the Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus and encouraged continued efforts to further strengthen data quality and support informed policymaking.
Selected Economic Indicators, 2024–28 (key figures preserved exactly)
- Social and Demographic Indicators
- Nominal GDP (2024, $ billion): 14.94
- GDP per capita (2024, current $): 11,994
- Total (2024, million): 1.258
- Life expectancy at birth (2024, number of years): 74
- Poverty (percent of population)
- Below poverty line (3.65$/day, 2023): 8.34
- Undernourishment (2023): 9
- Gini coefficient (2017): 36.8
- National Income and Prices (Annual Percentage Change)
- Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2024: 4.9; 2025: 3.2; 2026: 2.8; 2027: 3.3
- CPI (annual average, annual percentage change): 2024: 3.6; 2025: 3.7; 2026: 4.7; 2027: 5.5
- GDP deflator: 2024: 3.9; 2025: 4.8; 2026: 5.3
- Money and Credit
- Broad money (annual percentage change): 2024: 12.9; 2025: 8.3; 2026: 6.7; 2027: 9.5; 2028: 8.4
- Credit to non-government sector (annual percentage change): 2024: 7.8; 2025: 8.8; 2026: 5.6; 2027: 6.3
- Labor Market
- Unemployment rate (percent of labor force): 2024: 5.7; 2025: 6.0; 2026: 5.9
- Savings and Investment (Percent of GDP)
- Gross national saving: 2024: 21.1; 2025: 20.1; 2026: 21.4; 2027: 22.2
- Gross domestic investment: 2024: 21.0; 2025: 19.7; 2026: 21.2; 2027: 21.6; 2028: 21.7
- Fiscal Position (Percent of GDP) 1/
- Overall balance: 2024: -10.6; 2025: -7.1; 2026: -6.7; 2027: -5.4; 2028: -4.9
- Primary balance: 2024: -6.5; 2025: -3.5; 2026: -3.3; 2027: -2.2; 2028: -1.8
- Public sector debt 2/: 2024: 86.3; 2025: 87.8; 2026: 88.4; 2027: 88.1; 2028: 88.0
- Balance of Payments (Percent of GDP)
- Current account balance: 2024: -6.6; 2025: -7.4; 2026: -5.9; 2027: -5.0
- Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollars): 2024: 8,510; 2025: 10,294; 2026: 10,501; 2027: 10,833
- In months of imports: 2024: 8.5; 2025: 9.6; 2026: 9.1; 2027: 8.7
- In months of imports (excluding GBCs): 2024: 11.5; 2025: 12.3; 2026: 11.9; 2027: 11.8
- Total external debt: 2024: 140.9; 2025: 142.4; 2026: 135.3; 2027: 128.6; 2028: 122.3
- Exchange Rates
- Real effective exchange rate (percent change): 2024: -1.1; 2025: 0.4
- Nominal effective exchange rate (percent change): 2024: -1.4; 2025: -0.8
- Memorandum Items
- Nominal GDP (billions of Mauritian rupees): 2024: 693.3; 2025: 743.2; 2026: 800.8; 2027: 870.7; 2028: 932.9
- Nominal GDP (millions of U.S. dollars): 2024: 14,938; 2025: 16,073; 2026: 16,982; 2027: 18,182; 2028: 19,237
- GDP per capita (U.S. dollars): 2024: 12,935; 2025: 13,701; 2026: 14,709; 2027: 15,607
Executive Board Assessment (summary)
- Directors noted resilient economic activity but weakening macroeconomic conditions amid a more adverse external environment.
- With risks tilted to the downside, Directors highlighted the importance of recalibrating the macroeconomic policy mix to rebuild buffers and strengthen macroeconomic resilience.
- Emphasis on policy areas: fiscal consolidation, monetary policy credibility and forward‑looking stance, safeguarding central bank independence, targeted use of exchange rate flexibility, close monitoring of financial sector risks, strengthening AML/CFT, and advancing structural reforms to boost competitiveness and climate resilience.
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Mauritius, July 15, 2026.