IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Singapore

IMF News, July 20, 2026

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Executive Board conclusion date: July 15, 2026.
Singapore is navigating another year of elevated global uncertainty, notably an energy shock transmitted from the war in the Middle East.
Singapore entered the period from a position of strength with growth supported by AI-related semiconductor demand, healthy wage growth, and infrastructure projects.

Growth:
- Real GDP growth: 5.0 percent in 2025.
- Annualized q/q GDP expansion: 5.3 percent in 2026Q1.
- IMF projections: 3.5 percent (2026); 2.7 percent (2027).
Demand composition:
- Total domestic demand growth: 3.6 percent (2025); projected 3.1 percent (2026); 2.6 percent (2027).
- Final domestic demand growth: 4.3 percent (2025); projected 3.2 percent (2026).
- Private consumption growth: 5.8 percent (2024); 3.9 percent (2025); projected 2.0 percent (2027).
- Gross fixed investment and gross capital formation: investment recovered with 14.4 percent (2024) and 4.1 percent (2025).
Labor market:
- Unemployment rate: 2.0 percent in 2025 (broadly unchanged from 2024).
- Labor demand showed signs of moderation in 2026Q1.
Inflation:
- Headline inflation: rose to 1.8 percent in April 2026.
- CPI inflation (period average series): table shows recent year-end values including 6.5, 3.8, 4.9, 3.3 (as listed).
- Inflation expectations: consensus forecasts have remained well-anchored to date.

Current account:
- Current account surplus: 16.7 percent of GDP in 2025 (down from 17.2 percent in 2024).
- Current account balance (US$ billions): 100.9 (2025); projected 110.3 (2026); 115.0 (2027).
- Current account in percent of GDP time series includes 17.7, 18.9, 17.2, 16.6, etc.
Trade:
- Exports, f.o.b.: US$652.1 billion (2025); projected US$728.5 billion (2026); US$751.9 billion (2027).
- Imports, f.o.b.: -US$475.8 billion (2025); projected -US$551.2 billion (2026); -US$573.9 billion (2027).
- Goods balance: US$176.2 billion (2025); projected US$177.3 billion (2026); US$178.0 billion (2027).
- Main goods exports (2025, percent of total non-oil goods exports): machinery & transport equip. (69.2 percent); chemical products (10.4 percent); misc. manuf. articles (9.6 percent).
- Top three destinations for goods exports (2025, percent of gross goods exports): Hong Kong SAR (11.1 percent); the Chinese mainland (10.9 percent); Malaysia (9.9 percent).
Reserves:
- Gross official reserves: US$409.3 billion (2025); projected US$478.7 billion (2026); US$542.2 billion (2027).
- Reserves in months of imports series: 4.7, 5.2 (as listed).

Assessment:
- Directors viewed the moderately expansionary fiscal stance of the FY2026 budget as appropriately balancing structural transformation needs with macroeconomic stability.
- Authorities should stand ready to provide targeted and time-bound support if more adverse energy shocks materialize.
- Broad-based fiscal support should be avoided to not amplify inflationary pressures.
Fiscal numbers (percent of GDP):
- Revenue: 19.3 percent (2025); 19.6 percent (2026).
- Expenditure: 15.2 percent (2025); 15.9 percent (2026); 16.4 percent (2027).
- Net lending/borrowing and related series shown in table (including net lending/borrowing, excluding nonproduced assets, primary balance, public debt).
Public debt:
- Public Debt to GDP: 166.1 (2025); 166.7 (2026); 167.4 (2027).

Directors agreed:
- The current monetary policy stance is appropriate in the near term given the positive output gap, a gradually normalizing but still tight labor market, and the need to keep inflation expectations anchored.
- MAS should remain data dependent and stand ready to tighten further if second-round inflationary pressures emerge, with due regard to broader domestic conditions.
Monetary indicators:
- Three-month S$ SIBOR rate and other money and credit series are presented in the table; broad money (M2) and credit to private sector series are affected by a reporting break since July 2022.

Banking system health:
- Capital adequacy ratio: 18.5 percent in 2025Q2.
- Liquidity coverage ratios of Domestic Systemically Important Banks: remain firmly above 100 percent in 2025.
- Non-performing loan ratio: 1.1 percent in 2025Q2.
- Banks’ profitability supported by higher non-interest income.
Directors’ recommendations and observations:
- Financial sector remains resilient.
- Welcome authorities’ efforts to strengthen vigilance, stress testing, and contingency planning against emerging risks from geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, the rapidly evolving AI landscape, and tightening global financing conditions.
- Encouraged MAS to continue strengthening oversight of NBFIs and to enhance data coverage on bank-NBFI linkages.
- Continued efforts to strengthen cyber resilience and the AML/CFT framework remain important.

Main risks identified:
- Geopolitical tensions (including the war in the Middle East transmitting energy shocks).
- Trade fragmentation.
- Potential correction in AI-related investment.
- Upside inflation risks owing to higher energy prices.
External balance assessment:
- Staff assessment: Singapore’s external position in 2025 is substantially stronger than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
- Many Directors considered Singapore’s unique characteristics can lead to uncertainty around the external balance assessment, calling for cautious interpretation and communication.
- A few Directors considered Singapore’s structural features merit large external buffers.
- Noted gradual appreciation in the real effective exchange rate in recent years; a faster appreciation could help address external imbalances.
- Encouraged continued efforts to strengthen social protection and infrastructure spending to support external rebalancing in the medium and long run.

Directors welcomed:
- Continued progress toward stronger and more inclusive growth.
- Support for AI adoption by firms.
- Ongoing efforts toward reskilling and upskilling Singapore’s workforce.

Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Singapore, July 20, 2026.