Guinea: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review

IMF Staff Country Reports, July 3, 2013

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Guinea: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review

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Bibliographic details

• Published: July 3, 2013
• Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484390375.002

Summary findings

• The paper discusses Guinea’s Second Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, requests for modifications of performance criteria and waiver of nonobservance of a performance criterion, and a financing assurances review.
• Growth is projected at 4.5 percent for 2013, slightly lower than envisaged because of lower growth in the mining sector.
• The program’s inflation target has been revised upward slightly, mainly reflecting the higher than programmed outcome at end-2012, together with some modest impact from an agreement on increases in civil service wages.

Macroeconomic projections and targets

• Growth projection: 4.5 percent for 2013.
• Inflation: program target revised upward slightly to reflect higher-than-programmed outcome at end-2012 and effect of civil service wage increases.

Key risks and vulnerabilities

• Continued political unrest in the run-up to elections, which could affect growth, investment, and reform momentum.
• A rebound in inflation if the private sector follows the increase in civil service wages.
• Sectoral risk: lower growth in the mining sector already contributed to the downward revision of the 2013 growth projection.

Program actions and institutional context

• The review covers requests for waiver of nonobservance and modification of performance criterion, and a financing assurances review (as discussed in the paper).
• The paper situates these issues within the ECF-supported program and interactions with Guinean authorities on fiscal policy and public sector wages.

Subject tags and keywords (as provided)

• Subject: Asset and liability management, Debt relief, Economic sectors, External debt, Labor, Mining sector, Public financial management (PFM), Public sector wages
• Keywords: Africa, authorities' fiscal policy, CR, Debt relief, ECF-supported program, financing, fiscal policy, Global, government, Guinean authorities, ISCR, macroeconomic performance, Mining sector, policy reform, priority sector, Public sector wages, Sub-Saharan Africa, West Africa

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