Russian Federation: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

IMF Staff Country Reports, July 1, 2014

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Canonical URL: Russian Federation: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Growth slowdown that began in 2011, reflecting structural constraints, continued in 2013 despite accommodative policies.
Real GDP growth slowed to 1.3 percent in 2013 owing to a contraction in investment.
Consumption remained robust in 2013 owing to strong real wage growth and an unsecured consumer credit boom.
The general government balance moved from a modest surplus in 2012 to a deficit of slightly more than 1 percent of GDP in 2013.

IMF staff projects real GDP growth at 0.2 percent in 2014 with considerable downside risks.

Fiscal balance: modest surplus in 2012 → deficit of slightly more than 1 percent of GDP in 2013.
Financial dynamics noted: unsecured consumer credit boom supporting consumption amid investment contraction.

Subjects: Banking; Correspondent banking; External debt; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Financial sector policy and analysis; Financial services; Fiscal policy; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Prices.
Keywords: banking system; Correspondent banking; CR; economy; Europe; exchange rate; exchange rate corridor; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Fiscal stance; Global; growth model; growth prospect; growth slowdown; inflation targeting; ISCR; Oil prices; price distortion; Russia; slowdown.

Source: Russian Federation: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation, July 1, 2014.