Togo: Staff Report for 2013 Article IV Consultation

IMF Staff Country Reports, February 7, 2014

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Togo: Staff Report for 2013 Article IV Consultation

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Bibliographic details

• Published: February 7, 2014
• Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475574975.002

Debt sustainability assessment — key findings

• The Debt Sustainability Analysis update highlights Togo’s continued moderate risk of debt distress.
• After full Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) assistance, Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative, and beyond HIPC assistance, Togo’s external and public debt indicators improved significantly in 2010/11 and remained stable under the previous Extended Credit Facility–supported program.
• In 2012, Togo contracted significant external debt.
• Under the baseline scenario, debt indicators are projected to remain below the policy-relevant indicative thresholds in the 20-year period.
• Togo remains vulnerable to certain shocks and could breach the policy-relevant thresholds under some alternative scenarios in the outer years for:
  • present value (PV) of debt to GDP,
  • PV of debt to exports,
  • PV of debt to revenue,
  • debt-service-to-revenue ratios.

Risks, scenarios, and vulnerabilities

• Baseline projection: debt indicators remain below policy-relevant indicative thresholds over a 20-year period.
• Alternative scenarios: certain shocks could cause breaches of thresholds in the outer years for multiple PV and debt-service ratios.
• Specific vulnerability areas highlighted: external debt accumulation (notably the significant external borrowing in 2012) and sensitivity of PV and debt-service metrics to adverse scenarios.

Policy implications and focus areas

• Continue monitoring external borrowing and its implications for PV of debt to GDP, PV of debt to exports, PV of debt to revenue, and debt-service-to-revenue ratios.
• Maintain fiscal and debt-management policies that preserve the improvements achieved after HIPC and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative assistance and that sustain stability under program support.
• Strengthen resilience to shocks that could lead to threshold breaches in outer-year scenarios.

Content in this bundle

• Togo: 2013 Article IV Consultation; IMF Country Report No. 14/38, November 20, 2013
  • Togo: 2013 Article IV Consultation; IMF Country Report No. 14/38, November 20, 2013 (Markdown version)
  • Togo: 2013 Article IV Consultation; IMF Country Report No. 14/38, November 20, 2013 (PDF)
• Togo: Consultations au Titre de l'Article IV; Rapport du FMI n°14/38, le 20 novembre 2013
  • Togo: Consultations au Titre de l'Article IV; Rapport du FMI n°14/38, le 20 novembre 2013 (Markdown version)
  • Togo: Consultations au Titre de l'Article IV; Rapport du FMI n°14/38, le 20 novembre 2013 (PDF)