Russian Federation: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
IMF Staff Country Reports, August 2, 2019
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- Russian Federation: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
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Bibliographic details
- Published: August 2, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513509693.002
Growth outlook
- Growth is projected at 1.2 percent in 2019, reflecting a weak first quarter estimate, lower oil prices and the impact of the higher value-added tax rate on private consumption.
- Gross domestic product growth should be supported by an increase in public sector spending in the context of the national projects announced in 2018.
- The medium-term growth outlook remains modest.
- Absent deeper structural reforms, long-run growth is projected to settle around 1.8 percent.
- Public infrastructure spending under the national projects together with increased labor supply due to pension reform could have a positive effect on the growth rate of potential output.
Inflation and price outlook
- Inflation has begun to fall and is expected to return to the 4 percent target by early 2020.
Fiscal and public spending
- An increase in public sector spending associated with the national projects announced in 2018 is expected to support GDP growth.
Structural reforms and policy recommendations
- It is recommended that it is imperative to enhance competition by facilitating entry/exit and reforming public procurement.
Content in this bundle
- 1rusea2019001