Mongolia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for Mongolia
IMF Staff Country Reports, September 15, 2025
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 15, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229025638.002
Macroeconomic summary and recent developments
- The resource boom that supported strong activity in 2023-24 is weakening.
- In 2023-24, record-high coal exports and robust household and government spending led to buoyant economic activity and contributed to fiscal surpluses and successful external debt rollovers.
- With coal exports declining in 2025H1, mainly due to falling prices and increased global uncertainty, the near-term outlook has become less favorable.
- The new government, formed in June 2025, has signaled its commitment to policy continuity.
Fiscal and monetary dynamics
- Highly expansionary fiscal policy in the recent period contributed to rapid credit growth.
- Policy rate cuts in 2024, together with expansionary fiscal policy, occurred despite tighter reserve requirements.
- Inflation rose above the Bank of Mongolia (BOM)’s target band.
External sector and balance-sheet effects
- The surge in imports and a widening current account deficit accompanied the rapid credit expansion.
- Record-high coal exports in 2023-24 helped reduce vulnerabilities through fiscal surpluses and external debt rollover success.
- The decline in coal exports in 2025H1 has increased downside risks amid limited policy buffers.
Risks and outlook
- Downside risks to the outlook have increased due to weakening resource sector performance and limited policy space.
- Global uncertainty and falling commodity prices are key channels for the increased risk to the near-term outlook.
Policy implications and priorities
- Maintain policy continuity as signaled by the government formed in June 2025 to support stability.
- Address risks from rapid credit growth and inflation above the BOM’s target band through appropriate macroeconomic policies.
- Monitor external position closely given the widening current account deficit and the decline in coal export receipts in 2025H1.
Source: Mongolia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for Mongolia (IMF), September 15, 2025.
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