IMF Fiscal Monitor (FM) -- Taxing Times, October 2013
Fiscal Monitor, October 9, 2013
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- Published: October 9, 2013
- Series: Fiscal Monitor
Overview
- The Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. It is prepared twice a year by the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.
- Persistently high debt ratios in advanced economies and emerging fragilities in the developing world cast clouds on the global fiscal landscape.
- With narrowing budget deficits in advanced economies, the average public debt ratio is expected to stabilize in 2013–14—but it will be at a historic peak.
- Fiscal vulnerabilities are rising in emerging market economies and low-income countries:
- In emerging market economies, vulnerabilities reflect heightened financial volatility and downward revisions to potential growth.
- In low-income countries, vulnerabilities reflect possible shortfalls in commodity prices and aid.
Short-term outlook and fiscal vulnerabilities
- Strengthening fiscal balances and buttressing confidence remain at the top of the policy agenda.
- Fiscal sustainability risks:
- Remain high in advanced economies.
- Are rising in emerging market economies.
- The degree of urgency for fiscal adjustment differs across countries.
Main findings on taxation and fiscal adjustment
- This issue explores whether and how tax reform can help strengthen public finances.
- Key findings:
- The scope to raise more revenue is limited in many advanced economies.
- Where tax ratios are already high, the bulk of the necessary adjustment will have to fall on spending.
- In emerging market economies and low-income countries, the potential for raising revenue is often substantial.
- Improving tax compliance remains a central challenge in emerging market economies and low-income countries.
- Tax policy topics examined include:
- The revenue story to date: How (and what) countries are taxing.
- Finding and minding the gap and closing the gaps.
- Fixing international taxation.
- Room at the top? and Making tax reform happen.
- Taxation and financial stability; Taxation and growth.
- Specific measures such as a One-Off Capital Levy? and trends in planned measures, 2009-13.
Analytical components, empirical evidence, and policy tools included
- Chapters and major sections:
- Front Matter, Preface, Executive Summary
- 1. Recent Fiscal Developments and the Short-Term Outlook
- 2. Taxing Our Way out of—or into?—Trouble
- Boxes:
- Constructing an Index of the Difficulty of Fiscal Adjustment
- Fiscal Reforms to Unlock Economic Potential in the Arab Countries in Transition
- Figures (selected):
- Revisions to Overall Balance and Debt-to-GDP Forecasts since the Last Fiscal Monitor
- Fiscal Trends in Advanced Economies
- Fiscal Trends in Emerging Market Economies
- Fiscal Trends in Low-Income Countries
- Public Spending and Aid Contraction Scenario in Low-Income Countries, 2008–18
- Change in Fiscal Vulnerability Index, Fall 2013 Compared with Spring 2013
- Tables and cross-country data (selected):
- Fiscal Balances, 2008–14
- General Government Debt, 2008–14
- Assessment of Underlying Fiscal Vulnerabilities over Time
- Assessment of Underlying Fiscal Vulnerabilities, October 2013
- Selected Advanced Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 2013-15
- Selected Emerging Market Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 2013-14
- Selected Advanced Economies: Financial Sector Support
- Tax-focused empirical and methodological work:
- Peer Comparison of Revenues; Increase in Tax Effort and Fiscal Adjustment Needs; Trends in C-Efficiency, 1993-2011
- Redistribution through Direct Taxes and Social Transfers; Changes in Top Marginal Personal Income Tax Rate and Disposable Income Inequality between the Mid-1980s and the Late 2000s
- Revenue Gains from Returning Marginal Tax Rate on Top 1 Percent to 1980s Level; Implied Welfare Weights for Top Incomes and Top Marginal Rates, Late 2000s, Low Elasticity of Taxable Income
- Potential Revenues from Recurrent Net Wealth Taxes; Average Composition of Gross Wealth Held by Top 10 Percent of Households
- Measuring VAT Gaps; Empirical Evidence on the Growth Effects of Different Taxes; Increasing Revenue from Real Property Taxes
- Appendixes and supporting material:
- Recent Developments in Public Health Spending and Outlook for the Future
- Assessing Potential Revenue: Two Approaches
- Increasing Revenue from Real Property Taxes
- Methodological and Statistical Appendix, including Data and conventions, Fiscal policy assumptions, and extensive Statistical Tables covering Advanced Economies, Emerging Market Economies, and Low-Income Countries
IMF Fiscal Monitor (FM) -- Taxing Times, October 2013
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