Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms
Global Financial Stability Report, October 10, 2012
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 10, 2012
- Series: Global Financial Stability Report
Executive findings and policy recommendations
- The October 2012 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds increased risks to the global financial system, with the euro area crisis the principal source of concern.
- Policy actions urged:
- Act now to restore confidence, reverse capital flight, and reintegrate the euro zone.
- In both Japan and the United States, take steps toward medium-term fiscal adjustment to sustain confidence.
- Emerging market economies should guard against future shocks while managing a slowdown in growth.
- Assessment of regulatory reform:
- Progress has been limited, partly because many reforms are in the early stages of implementation and partly because crisis intervention methods are still in use in a number of economies, delaying movement of the financial system onto a safer path.
- Financial-structure finding:
- Some structural features are associated with better outcomes. In particular, financial buffers made up of high-quality capital and truly liquid assets tend to be associated with better economic performance.
Chapter 1 — Global Financial Stability Assessment (summary of themes)
- Main risk drivers and vulnerabilities:
- Euro area crisis remains the principal risk.
- Emerging markets are most susceptible to spillovers (with some also facing domestic vulnerabilities and reduced policy space).
- The United States and Japan need clear plans for medium-term fiscal adjustment to sustain confidence.
- Included analytical elements:
- Boxes: 1.1 Falling Confidence, Rising Risks, and Complacency; 1.2 Recent Policy Initiatives, Developments, and Challenges in the Euro Area; 1.3 Resilience of the Euro, or Fragile Equilibrium?; 1.4 Regulatory Reform: From Rulemaking to Implementation.
- Figures and data: Global Financial Stability Map; Asset Price Performance since April 2012 GFSR; Cumulative Flows to Global Mutual Funds; Portfolio and Other Investment Capital Flows in the Euro Area, Excluding Central Banks; Spain and Italy: Changes in Foreign Investor Shares and Yields; Euro Area Exposures to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain; Periphery Minus Core Credit Default Swap Spreads; Total Deleveraging by Sample Banks; Reduction in Euro Area Supply of Credit under Alternative Policy Scenarios; Impact on Investment, Employment, and GDP from EU Bank Deleveraging; Reduction in Bank Assets: Sensitivity to Periphery Sovereign Spreads.
Chapter 2 — Restoring Confidence and Containing Global Spillovers (summary of themes)
- Focus areas:
- Detailed analysis of key challenges for the euro area, United States, Japan, and emerging markets.
- Builds on earlier work on European bank deleveraging and explores the sovereign-banking nexus in Japan and stability of U.S. financial markets given policy challenges.
- Analytical notes and topics:
- Sections: 2.1 Systemic Risk in International Dollar Credit; 2.2 Why Are Euro Area Periphery Sovereign Spreads So High?; 2.3 European Bank Deleveraging: An Update; 2.4 Corporate Sector Fundamentals, Funding Conditions, and Credit Risks; 2.5 Key Challenges for the Dealer Operations of U.S. Banks; 2.6 How Impaired Is Liquidity in the U.S. Corporate Bond Trading Market?; 2.7 Avoiding the Pitfalls of Financial Liberalization in China—Credit Risk, Liquidity Mismatches, and Moral Hazard in Nonbank Intermediation.
- Tables and indicators (selected topics listed in source):
- Indebtedness and Leverage in Selected Advanced Economies; Banking Financial Stability Indicators; Sovereign Market and Vulnerability Indicators; Key Features of Sovereign Funding and Bank Deleveraging Scenarios; Holdings of Treasury Securities, by Sector; Impact on Domestic Bank Balance Sheets from a Hypothetical Reversal of Foreign Inflows into Local Bond Markets; Overview of Recent Macroprudential and Capital Flow Measures in Selected Emerging Market and Other Economies.
- Scenario and projection items referenced:
- Total Deleveraging Due to Selected Stand-Alone Factors; Reduction in Supply of Credit to Euro Area: Core versus Periphery; Reduction in Credit Supply: Global Spillovers; Impact of EU Bank Deleveraging on GDP, 2013 Projection; Reduction in Credit Supply to Euro Area: Sensitivity to Periphery Sovereign Spreads under Alternative Policy Scenarios; Corporate Bond Issuance Needs through End-2013 under Alternative Deleveraging Scenarios; Projected Average Interest Rates on Outstanding Sovereign Debt; Projected Sovereign Interest Expense as a Proportion of Revenue; TARGET2 Projections.
Chapter 3 — The Reform Agenda: An Interim Report on Progress Toward a Safer Financial System (summary of themes)
- Purpose:
- A stock-take of global regulatory reforms and implications for the structure of intermediation.
- Key analytical threads:
- Risks associated with new forms of financial intermediation; global deleveraging landscape at economy- and bank-level; TruPS and the impact of Basel III on U.S. banks; side effects of low policy interest rates; whether less globally integrated banking systems withstood international contagion better.
- Metrics and indices referenced:
- Size of the Global Financial System; Market-Based Intermediation and New Financial Products; Scope and Scale: Interconnectedness, Funding, Concentration; Globalization; Government and Central Bank Crisis Measures, 2007–10; Effect of Progress in Basel Capital Rules on Intermediation Structures; Effect of Progress in Basel Liquidity Rules on Intermediation Structures; Basel Capital and Liquidity Progress Index.
- Policy-implementation observation:
- Status of initiatives varies by economy; many reforms remain in early stages of implementation.
Chapter 4 — Changing Global Financial Structures: Can They Improve Economic Outcomes? (summary of themes)
- Purpose and finding:
- Examines how evolving financial structures relate to economic outcomes and draws implications for regulatory reform.
- Empirical result highlighted: financial buffers composed of high-quality capital and truly liquid assets are associated with better economic performance.
- Country case studies and analysis components:
- Sections on Australia, The United States, Germany, Japan, China.
- Time Varying Correlations: Financial Globalization Index; Time Varying Correlations: Financial Buffers; Financial Structure and Economic Growth, 1998–2010; Financial Structure Measures in This GFSR; Sector Size, Structure, and Economic Performance in Case Study Countries.
- Econometric and statistical elements:
- Summary of Fixed-Effects Panel Estimation Results on Economic Outcomes, 1998–2010; List of Variables Used in Regression Analysis; Fixed-Effects Panel Estimation with Interaction Term, 1998–2010; Fixed-Effects Panel Estimation with Quadratic Term, 1998–2010; Systemic Banking Crises and Financial Structure Variables: Probit Model; Financial Depth and Macroeconomic Volatility; Statistical Appendix.
Statistical appendix and data notes (selected points)
- Appendices contain multiple data series and market indicators, including:
- Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2011; Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads; Selected Credit Default Swap Spreads; Implied Volatility Indices; United States: Corporate Bond Market; Euro Area: Corporate Bond Market; United States: Commercial Paper Market.
- Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2011; MSCI Equity Market Indices; Emerging Markets Bond Index: EMBI Global Sovereign Yield Spreads; Emerging Market Private External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans; Emerging Market Private External Financing: Bonds; Emerging Market Private External Financing: Equities; Emerging Market Private External Financing: Loans.
- Terminology and notation clarified:
- Symbols used: . . . indicates data not available; —— indicates figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or item does not exist; - between years and months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered; / between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
- Definitions: “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point). “n.a.” means not applicable.
- Note: Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms — October 2012 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) — IMF
Content in this bundle
- Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map
- figure1_10
- Figure 1.11. Impact on Investment from EU Bank Deleveraging
- Figure 1.12. Impact on Employment from EU Bank Deleveraging
- Figure 1.13. Impact on GDP from EU Bank Deleveraging
- Figure 1.14. Reduction in Bank Assets: Sensitivity to Periphery Sovereign Spreads
- Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions
- Figure 1.3. Asset Price Performance since April 2012 GFSR
- Figure 1.4. Cumulative Flows to Global Mutual Funds
- figure1_5
- Figure1 7
- Figure 1.8. Periphery Minus Core Credit Default Swap Spreads
- Figure 1.9. Total Deleveraging by Sample Banks
- Figure 2.1. Government Bond Yields and Volatility
- Figure 2.10. Bank Credit to Domestic Government and the Private Sector
- Figure 2.11. Change in Bank Intra Euro Area Cross-border Exposures
- Figure 2.12. Change in Interest Rate on New Bank Loans
- Figure 1.9. Total Deleveraging by Sample Banks
- Figure 2.15. Total Deleveraging due to Selected Stand-Alone Factors
- figure2_16
- Figure 2.17. Reduction in Credit Supply: Global Spillovers
- Dataset overview: Figure 2.18. Impact of EU Bank Deleveraging on GDP
- Figure 2.19. Reduction in Credit Supply to Euro Area: Sensitivity to Periphery Sovereign Spreads
- figure2_2
- Figure 2.20 Bank Credit to Corporates
- Figure2 21
- Figure 2.22. Projected Average Interest Rate on Outstanding Debt
- Figure 2.23. Projected Interest Expenses as a Proportion of Revenue
- Figure 2.25. Target2 Projections
- Figure 2.26. Borrowing from Central Banks
- Figure2 27
- Figure 2.28. Contributions to Change in Fitted Ten-Year Nominal Treasury Yield
- Figure2 29
- figure2_3 — Dataset overview
- Figure 2.30 Ten-Year Yields Tracing the Cycle Norms
- Figure 2.31. Credit Much Weaker than Past
- Figure 2.33. U.S. Government Debt and Interest Payments
- Figure 2.34. Foreign Investor Share of Outstanding Sovereign Debt
- Figure 2.35. Rollover Risk: Weighted Average Debt Maturity
- Figure 2.37. Bank Holdings of Government Debt in Major Advanced Countries
- Figure 2.38. Japanese Banks' Sensitivity to a 100 Basis Point Interest Rate Shock
- Figure 2.39. Cumulative Purchases of JGBs since 2007
- figure2_4
- Figure 2.40. Bank Holdings of Government Debt in Japan under Current Trends, 2012-17
- Figure 2.41. Foreign Claims of Foreign Banks
- Figure 2.42. Foreign Holdings of Japan Government Bonds and Bills
- Figure 2.43. Assets under Management
- Figure2 44
- Figure 2.46. Relative Sensitivity to Sovereign CDS to CDS of Euro Area Periphery, 2011-12
- Figure 2.47. Net International Investment Position versus Gross External Debt, 2011
- Figure 2.48. Share of Foreign Currency-Denominated Loans in Total Loans
- Figure 2.49. Ratio of Nonperforming Loans to Total Loans
- Figure 2.5. Periphery Minus Core Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads
- Figure2 50
- Figure 2.51. Nonresident Holdings of Government Debt and Market Liquidity
- Figure2 52
- Figure 2.54. Private Sector Credit, 2011 versus 2006
- Figure 2.55. Cumulative Change in Real House Prices, 2006-11
- Figure 2.56. Nonperforming Loans, 2011 versus 2008
- Figure 2.6. Euro Area Bank Debt Issuance
- Figure 2.7. Bank Deposit Flows in the Euro Area
- Figure 2.8. Bank Customer Deposit Trends
- Table 2.1. Indebtedness and Leverage in Selected Advanced Economies
- Table 2.2. Banking Financial Stability Indicators
- Table 2.3. Sovereign Market and Vulnerability Indicators
- Table 2.5. Holdings of Treasury Securities, by Sector
- dataset overview
- Table 2.8. Indicators of Vulnerability and Policy Space for Emerging Market and Other Economies
- Figure 3.1. Size of the Global Financial System
- Figure 3.3. Market-Based Intermediation: New Financial Products
- Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2011
- Figure 6. United States: Corporate Bond Market
- Figure 7. Euro Area: Corporate Bond Market
- Figure 8. United States: Commercial Paper Market
- Table 1. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2011
- Table 10. Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds
- Table 2. MSCI Equity Market Indices
- Table 3. Emerging Markets Bond Index: EMBI Global Sovereign Yield Spreads
- Table 4. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans
- Table 5. Emerging Market External Financing: Bonds
- Table 6. Emerging Market External Financing: Equities
- Table 7. Emerging Market External Financing: Loans
- Table 8. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios
- Table 9. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios
- ملخص وافٍ لتقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي
- 2012 年10 月期《全球金融稳定报告》-- 概要, 2012年10月10日
- Résumé Analytique : Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde
- 国際金融安定性報告書
- the reFOrM aGeNDa: aN INterIM repOrt ON prOGreSS tOWarD a SaFer FINaNcIaL SYSteM
- Chapter 4: Changing Global Financial Structures: Can They Improve Economic Outcomes?
- _c1pdf
- ChapteR 2 RestORing COnfidenCe and COntaining glObal spillOveRs
- Chapter 3: The Reform Agenda: An Interim Report on Progress T Oward A Safer Financial System
- Chapter 4: Changing Global Financial Structures: Can They Improve Economic Outcomes?
- eXeCUtIVe sUMMARY
- Preface
- Restoring Confidence and Containing Global Spillovers: Press Points for Chapters 1-2
- Statistical Appendix -- Global Financial Stability Report; October 2012
- Textpdf
- sumr
- Resumen ejecutivo -- Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial -- Octubre de 2012