Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?

Global Financial Stability Report, October 11, 2017

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Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?

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Bibliographic details

• Published: October 11, 2017
• Series: Global Financial Stability Report
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484308394.082

Executive summary and main findings

• The global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth.
• The report contains a chapter examining the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt.
  • Documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis.
• Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies.
  • The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.

Policy-relevant analysis and implications

• Strengthening of the global financial system is attributed to:
  • extraordinary policy support;
  • regulatory enhancements;
  • the cyclical upturn in growth.
• Household debt dynamics:
  • Rising household debt over past decades has implications for short- and medium-term economic growth and financial stability.
  • The global financial crisis moderated but did not reverse the general upward trajectory in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries.
• Financial conditions and growth risk:
  • A new macroeconomic measure links financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth.
  • Financial condition changes affect not only mean growth projections but the entire distribution of future GDP growth outcomes.

Scope, subjects, and keywords

• Subjects: Banking; Consumption; Credit; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial crises; Financial institutions; Financial markets; Financial sector policy and analysis; Financial sector risk; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global systemically important banks; Income; Money; National accounts
• Keywords: Africa; Consumption; Credit; credit market participation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; financial condition; financial leverage; Financial sector risk; fixed income; GDP growth; GFSR; Global; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; global financial system; Global systemically important banks; growth risk; household debt; IMF executive board discussion summary; Income; labor market distortion; market; quarter FCI; return on assets; risk; risk appetite; risks to growth; univariate financial conditions index

References

• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr
• United States and the IMF
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• Banking
• Consumption
• Credit
• Emerging and frontier financial markets
• Financial crises
• Financial institutions
• Financial markets
• Financial sector policy and analysis
• Financial sector risk
• Global financial crisis of 2008-2009
• Global systemically important banks
• Income
• Money
• National accounts
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