Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2012: Managing Spillovers and Advancing Economic Rebalancing

Asia and Pacific, April 27, 2012

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Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2012: Managing Spillovers and Advancing Economic Rebalancing

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Bibliographic details

• Published: April 27, 2012
• Series: Asia and Pacific

Executive summary: growth outlook and key risks

• Growth projection: "now projected at 6 percent in 2012, rising to about 6½ percent in 2013."
• Outlook contingent: Barring the realization of downside risks to the global economy, growth in the Asia and the Pacific region is expected to gain momentum over the course of 2012.
• Buffers and vulnerabilities:
  • Stronger economic and policy fundamentals have helped buffer the region's economies against the global financial crisis.
  • These fundamentals have limited adverse financial market spillovers and ameliorated the impact of deleveraging by European banks.
  • However, "a sharp fall in exports to advanced economies and a reversal of foreign capital flows would have a severe impact on the region."

Policy challenge: calibrating insurance and macroeconomic stances

• Central policy question: "How Much Insurance Is Still Needed?"
• Monetary policy stance:
  • Some Asian and Pacific economies can afford to lengthen the pause in the normalization of their macroeconomic policies that was initiated when the global recovery stalled late in 2011.
  • Others may need a faster return to more neutral policy stances.
• Fiscal policy stance:
  • "The pace of fiscal consolidation should be calibrated to country-specific circumstances."
• Overarching objective: support stable, noninflationary growth while adjusting policy normalization to country-specific conditions.

Financial linkages, spillovers, and deleveraging risks

• Financial spillovers:
  • The report examines "the Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages: Key Determinants and the Role of Policy" and sensitivity of Asian financial markets to market movements in systemic economies.
  • It addresses whether macroeconomic policies can reduce financial sensitivities in Asia.
• Deleveraging by European banks:
  • The report includes a chapter on "The Likely Effect on Asia of a Sharp Deleveraging by European Banks."
  • Topics covered: "The Role of European Banks in Asia," "What Happened during the Lehman Crisis?" and "What Are the Implications of a Future Shock?"
  • Evidence indicates that deleveraging and abrupt changes in foreign claims could materially affect domestic credit supply and financial stability in parts of the region.

Structural rebalancing and regional implications

• China and regional spillovers:
  • The report asks "Is China Rebalancing? Implications for Asia" and considers both whether China is rebalancing and what the implications are for other Asian economies.
• Foundations for sustainable growth:
  • A chapter on "Laying the Foundations for Sustainable Growth" highlights the need for structural policies to support rebalancing and long-term resilience.
• Low-income and small island economies:
  • A dedicated chapter examines "Asian Low-Income and Pacific Island Countries: Opportunities and Risks from Increased Regional Integration."
  • Key themes: increased investment from within Asia to regional LICs and greater links between Pacific Island Countries and regional economies.

Contents highlights (analytic focus areas)

• Ensuring Stable Growth: signs of stabilization, a 2012 turnaround, risks, policy calibration, and foundations for sustainable growth.
• Financial linkages: determinants of Asian financial betas and the role of policy in reducing sensitivities.
• Deleveraging scenarios: role of European banks, lessons from Lehman, and implications of future shocks.
• China’s rebalancing: assessment of rebalancing and spillover effects to Asia.
• Regional integration: impacts on Asian LICs and Pacific Island Countries from increased regional links.

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2012: Managing Spillovers and Advancing Economic Rebalancing

Content in this bundle

• Fig Box1 2
  • Fig Box1 2 (XLS)
• China and India: Population Distribution
  • China and India: Population Distribution (Markdown version)
  • China and India: Population Distribution (CSV)
• Fig Box1 4
  • Fig Box1 4 (XLS)
• Figure 1.1. Real GDP Growth in the United States and the Euro Area
  • Figure 1.1. Real GDP Growth in the United States and the Euro Area (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.1. Real GDP Growth in the United States and the Euro Area (CSV)
• Figure 1.10. Selected Asia: Change in One-Year Ahead Inflation Expectation since the End of 2011
  • Figure 1.10. Selected Asia: Change in One-Year Ahead Inflation Expectation since the End of 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.10. Selected Asia: Change in One-Year Ahead Inflation Expectation since the End of 2011 (CSV)
• Figure 1.11. Nonresident Investment in Selected Asian Markets
  • Figure 1.11. Nonresident Investment in Selected Asian Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.11. Nonresident Investment in Selected Asian Markets (CSV)
• Figure 1.12. Selected Asia: Stock Markets
  • Figure 1.12. Selected Asia: Stock Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.12. Selected Asia: Stock Markets (CSV)
• Figure 1.13. Selected Asia: Exchange Rates against the U.S. Dollar
  • Figure 1.13. Selected Asia: Exchange Rates against the U.S. Dollar (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.13. Selected Asia: Exchange Rates against the U.S. Dollar (CSV)
• Figure 1.14. Selected Asia: Share of Exports Linked to Demand from Europe, 2010
  • Figure 1.14. Selected Asia: Share of Exports Linked to Demand from Europe, 2010 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.14. Selected Asia: Share of Exports Linked to Demand from Europe, 2010 (CSV)
• Figure 1.15. Selected Asia
  • Figure 1.15. Selected Asia (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.15. Selected Asia (CSV)
• Fig1 16
  • Fig1 16 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 16 (CSV)
• Fig1 17
  • Fig1 17 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 17 (CSV)
• Figure 1.18. Selected Asia: Current Account Balances
  • Figure 1.18. Selected Asia: Current Account Balances (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.18. Selected Asia: Current Account Balances (CSV)
• Figure 1.2. Selected Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices in 2011
  • Figure 1.2. Selected Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices in 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.2. Selected Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices in 2011 (CSV)
• Figure 1.20. Consolidated Foreign Claims of European Banks on Asia
  • Figure 1.20. Consolidated Foreign Claims of European Banks on Asia (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.20. Consolidated Foreign Claims of European Banks on Asia (CSV)
• Figure 1.21. China: Potential Effects of Property Downturn
  • Figure 1.21. China: Potential Effects of Property Downturn (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.21. China: Potential Effects of Property Downturn (CSV)
• Figure 1.22. Asia: Pass-Through from Global Energy Prices to Domestic Food and Energy Prices
  • Figure 1.22. Asia: Pass-Through from Global Energy Prices to Domestic Food and Energy Prices (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.22. Asia: Pass-Through from Global Energy Prices to Domestic Food and Energy Prices (CSV)
• Figure 1.23. Selected Asia: Real Interest Rates
  • Figure 1.23. Selected Asia: Real Interest Rates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.23. Selected Asia: Real Interest Rates (CSV)
• Figure 1.24. Selected Asia: Nominal Policy Rates and Taylor Rule Implied Rates
  • Figure 1.24. Selected Asia: Nominal Policy Rates and Taylor Rule Implied Rates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.24. Selected Asia: Nominal Policy Rates and Taylor Rule Implied Rates (CSV)
• Figure 1.25. Asia: Real Effective Exchange Rates
  • Figure 1.25. Asia: Real Effective Exchange Rates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.25. Asia: Real Effective Exchange Rates (CSV)
• Figure 1.26. Emerging Asia and Latin America: Real Exchange Rates and Reserves
  • Figure 1.26. Emerging Asia and Latin America: Real Exchange Rates and Reserves (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.26. Emerging Asia and Latin America: Real Exchange Rates and Reserves (CSV)
• Figure 1.27. Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted General Government Balances
  • Figure 1.27. Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted General Government Balances (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.27. Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted General Government Balances (CSV)
• Figure 1.28. Selected Asia: Fiscal Impulse in 2012
  • Figure 1.28. Selected Asia: Fiscal Impulse in 2012 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.28. Selected Asia: Fiscal Impulse in 2012 (CSV)
• Figure 1.29. Gross Public Debt, 2011
  • Figure 1.29. Gross Public Debt, 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.29. Gross Public Debt, 2011 (CSV)
• Fig1 3
  • Fig1 3 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 3 (CSV)
• Figure 1.30. Share in Global Consumer Goods Import Demand, 2010
  • Figure 1.30. Share in Global Consumer Goods Import Demand, 2010 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.30. Share in Global Consumer Goods Import Demand, 2010 (CSV)
• Figure 1.4. Emerging Asia: Trade Balance
  • Figure 1.4. Emerging Asia: Trade Balance (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.4. Emerging Asia: Trade Balance (CSV)
• Fig1 5
  • Fig1 5 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 5 (CSV)
• Figure 1.6. Selected Asia: Labor Market Conditions
  • Figure 1.6. Selected Asia: Labor Market Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.6. Selected Asia: Labor Market Conditions (CSV)
• Figure 1.7. Emerging Asia: Measure of Excess Credit Growth
  • Figure 1.7. Emerging Asia: Measure of Excess Credit Growth (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.7. Emerging Asia: Measure of Excess Credit Growth (CSV)
• Figure 1.8. Selected Asia: Fiscal Impulse in 2011
  • Figure 1.8. Selected Asia: Fiscal Impulse in 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.8. Selected Asia: Fiscal Impulse in 2011 (CSV)
• Fig1 9
  • Fig1 9 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 9 (CSV)
• Figure 2.1. Equity Returns: Selected Systemic Economies and Asia
  • Figure 2.1. Equity Returns: Selected Systemic Economies and Asia (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.1. Equity Returns: Selected Systemic Economies and Asia (CSV)
• Figure 2.2. Asian Financial Betas and Global Financial Shocks
  • Figure 2.2. Asian Financial Betas and Global Financial Shocks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.2. Asian Financial Betas and Global Financial Shocks (CSV)
• Figure 2.3. Financial Betas across Asian Economies
  • Figure 2.3. Financial Betas across Asian Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.3. Financial Betas across Asian Economies (CSV)
• Figure 2.4. Asia: Changes in Betas from 2002-07 to 2008-11
  • Figure 2.4. Asia: Changes in Betas from 2002-07 to 2008-11 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4. Asia: Changes in Betas from 2002-07 to 2008-11 (CSV)
• Figure 3.1. Consolidated Foreign Claims of European and U.S. Banks on Emerging Asia
  • Figure 3.1. Consolidated Foreign Claims of European and U.S. Banks on Emerging Asia (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.1. Consolidated Foreign Claims of European and U.S. Banks on Emerging Asia (CSV)
• Figure 3.2. BIS Reporting Banks' Consolidated Foreign Claims on Selected Asian Economies by Sector
  • Figure 3.2. BIS Reporting Banks' Consolidated Foreign Claims on Selected Asian Economies by Sector (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.2. BIS Reporting Banks' Consolidated Foreign Claims on Selected Asian Economies by Sector (CSV)
• Figure 3.3. Asia: Export Credit Agency Backed Trade Finance
  • Figure 3.3. Asia: Export Credit Agency Backed Trade Finance (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.3. Asia: Export Credit Agency Backed Trade Finance (CSV)
• Figure 3.4. Consolidated Foreign Claims on Asian Economies
  • Figure 3.4. Consolidated Foreign Claims on Asian Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.4. Consolidated Foreign Claims on Asian Economies (CSV)
• Figure 3.5. Differences in Policy Responses: Asia versus Non-Asia
  • Figure 3.5. Differences in Policy Responses: Asia versus Non-Asia (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.5. Differences in Policy Responses: Asia versus Non-Asia (CSV)
• Figure 3.6. Debt-to-Equity Ratio in Financial Firms at End-2007
  • Figure 3.6. Debt-to-Equity Ratio in Financial Firms at End-2007 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.6. Debt-to-Equity Ratio in Financial Firms at End-2007 (CSV)
• Figure 3.7. Selected Asia: Real Policy Rates
  • Figure 3.7. Selected Asia: Real Policy Rates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.7. Selected Asia: Real Policy Rates (CSV)
• Figure 4.1. China: Current Account Balance and Components
  • Figure 4.1. China: Current Account Balance and Components (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.1. China: Current Account Balance and Components (CSV)
• Fig4 10
  • Fig4 10 (Markdown version)
  • Fig4 10 (CSV)
• Figure 4.11. China: Distribution of FDI and Imported Value Added
  • Figure 4.11. China: Distribution of FDI and Imported Value Added (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.11. China: Distribution of FDI and Imported Value Added (CSV)
• Figure 4.12. China: Share in Global Consumption versus Share in Global Consumer Goods Imports
  • Figure 4.12. China: Share in Global Consumption versus Share in Global Consumer Goods Imports (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.12. China: Share in Global Consumption versus Share in Global Consumer Goods Imports (CSV)
• Figure 4.14. Selected Asia: Correlation of Exports to China with China?s Exports
  • Figure 4.14. Selected Asia: Correlation of Exports to China with China?s Exports (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.14. Selected Asia: Correlation of Exports to China with China?s Exports (CSV)
• Figure 4.15. U.S. Imports from Asia for Final Demand, 2010
  • Figure 4.15. U.S. Imports from Asia for Final Demand, 2010 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.15. U.S. Imports from Asia for Final Demand, 2010 (CSV)
• Figure 4.2. China: Composition of Exports and Imports
  • Figure 4.2. China: Composition of Exports and Imports (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.2. China: Composition of Exports and Imports (CSV)
• Figure 4.3. China: Export and Import Prices, and Terms of Trade
  • Figure 4.3. China: Export and Import Prices, and Terms of Trade (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.3. China: Export and Import Prices, and Terms of Trade (CSV)
• Figure 4.4. China: Mineral Import Volumes
  • Figure 4.4. China: Mineral Import Volumes (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.4. China: Mineral Import Volumes (CSV)
• Fig4 5
  • Fig4 5 (Markdown version)
  • Fig4 5 (CSV)
• Figure 4.6. China: Import Quantum Index
  • Figure 4.6. China: Import Quantum Index (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.6. China: Import Quantum Index (CSV)
• Figure 4.7. China: Number of Employees
  • Figure 4.7. China: Number of Employees (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.7. China: Number of Employees (CSV)
• Figure 4.8. Global Shares in Photosensitive Semiconductor Devices Exports
  • Figure 4.8. Global Shares in Photosensitive Semiconductor Devices Exports (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.8. Global Shares in Photosensitive Semiconductor Devices Exports (CSV)
• Figure 4.9. China: Loss-Making Enterprises
  • Figure 4.9. China: Loss-Making Enterprises (Markdown version)
  • Figure 4.9. China: Loss-Making Enterprises (CSV)
• Figure 5.1. Selected Emerging Asia: Share in Global Output and FDI
  • Figure 5.1. Selected Emerging Asia: Share in Global Output and FDI (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.1. Selected Emerging Asia: Share in Global Output and FDI (CSV)
• Fig5 10
  • Fig5 10 (Markdown version)
  • Fig5 10 (CSV)
• Figure 5.2. Selected Emerging Asia: Share in Regional FDI
  • Figure 5.2. Selected Emerging Asia: Share in Regional FDI (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.2. Selected Emerging Asia: Share in Regional FDI (CSV)
• Figure 5.3. China: Foreign Direct Investment
  • Figure 5.3. China: Foreign Direct Investment (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.3. China: Foreign Direct Investment (CSV)
• Figure 5.4. Selected Emerging Asia: Growth in FDI Relative to Regional Average
  • Figure 5.4. Selected Emerging Asia: Growth in FDI Relative to Regional Average (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.4. Selected Emerging Asia: Growth in FDI Relative to Regional Average (CSV)
• Figure 5.5. Selected Emerging Asia: Growth in FDI Relative to Regional Average
  • Figure 5.5. Selected Emerging Asia: Growth in FDI Relative to Regional Average (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.5. Selected Emerging Asia: Growth in FDI Relative to Regional Average (CSV)
• Figure 5.6. Selected Emerging Asia: Trade Openness and FDI
  • Figure 5.6. Selected Emerging Asia: Trade Openness and FDI (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.6. Selected Emerging Asia: Trade Openness and FDI (CSV)
• Figure 5.7. Selected Emerging Asia: Exports Exposure
  • Figure 5.7. Selected Emerging Asia: Exports Exposure (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.7. Selected Emerging Asia: Exports Exposure (CSV)
• Figure 5.8. PICs: Official Development Aid by OECD Donors
  • Figure 5.8. PICs: Official Development Aid by OECD Donors (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.8. PICs: Official Development Aid by OECD Donors (CSV)
• Figure 5.9. Selected PICs: Tourist Arrivals by Country of Residence
  • Figure 5.9. Selected PICs: Tourist Arrivals by Country of Residence (Markdown version)
  • Figure 5.9. Selected PICs: Tourist Arrivals by Country of Residence (CSV)
• Imfアジア太平洋地域経済見通し（Apd Reo), 2012年4月: 要旨
  • Imfアジア太平洋地域経済見通し（Apd Reo), 2012年4月: 要旨 (Markdown version)
  • Imfアジア太平洋地域経済見通し（Apd Reo), 2012年4月: 要旨 (PDF)
• _c10412pdf
  • _c10412pdf (Markdown version)
  • _c10412pdf (PDF)
• Ii. the Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages: Key Determinants and the Role of Policy
  • Ii. the Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages: Key Determinants and the Role of Policy (Markdown version)
  • Ii. the Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages: Key Determinants and the Role of Policy (PDF)
• _c30412pdf
  • _c30412pdf (Markdown version)
  • _c30412pdf (PDF)
• C40412pdf
  • C40412pdf (PDF)
• C50412pdf
  • C50412pdf (PDF)
• Referencespdf
  • Referencespdf (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_Boxes_PDF_files.docx
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• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)
• Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (Markdown version)
  • Microsoft Word - Template_for_PDF_files.docx (PDF)

References

• Press Release: Asia Faces Stronger Growth, but Further Rebalancing Critical
• Asia and Pacific: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive
• Regional Economic Outlooks
• IMF Regional Reports
• World Economic Outlook Archives
• Asia and the IMF
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