Regional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Dealing with Shocks, October 2008 -- Table of Contents
Europe, October 20, 2008
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- Regional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Dealing with Shocks, October 2008 -- Table of Contents
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 20, 2008
- Series: Europe
Executive summary and outlook
- The financial crisis "has reached extraordinary proportions in recent months."
- Commodity prices increases have boosted headline inflation, depressing consumption.
- Growth is expected to stagnate in the near term in most advanced European economies as asset price booms deflate and banks curb credit to reduce leverage.
- Growth will slow down significantly in the emerging economies in Europe as well.
- Mutually reinforcing deterioration in financial and economic conditions is the main downside risk to the outlook.
- Key policy priorities: stabilizing financial conditions and nurturing growth.
- The report also presents analytical work on:
- the impact of high commodity prices,
- the turnaround in the credit and asset price cycles,
- the macroeconomic effects of cross-border labor flows.
Main report structure (high-level chapters and themes)
- Executive Summary
- 1. Outlook: Dealing with Shocks
- Advanced Economies
- Emerging Economies
- 2. Europe: Coping with High Commodity Prices
- Commodity Price Boom: Causes and Prospects
- Effect of Commodity Price Increases on Inflation in the Advanced Economies
- Effect of Commodity Price Increases on Inflation in the Emerging Economies
- Policy Responses
- Policy Conclusions
- 3. The European Credit Cycle: Diverging Patterns
- Overview
- Vulnerability to Changes in Financial Conditions
- Borrowing against Collateral: How Do Financial Cycles Get Amplified?
- From Financial Conditions to the Macroeconomy
- Cross-Border Lending: Further Benefits and Risks
- What Are the Implications for Policy?
- 4. Cross-Border Labor Flows in New Member States: Patterns and Challenges
- Patterns
- Impact of Labor Mobility on Convergence
- References
Additional analyses, boxes, and thematic studies
- Box topics include:
- How Strong Is the Euro?
- The Baltics: Harder Times Ahead
- Russia: Dealing with Surging Commodity Exports
- Pass-Through of Commodity Price Shocks to Inflation in Some Advanced European Economies
- The report contains focused studies and chapters on:
- 5. Inflation Outlook in the Euro Area
- 6. The Effects of Cutting Taxes on Gasoline
- 7. Impact of High Oil Prices on Potential Output in Europe
- 8. Does the Driver of the Energy Imbalance Matter?
- 9. European Securitization and the Possible Revival of Financial Innovation
- 10. Institutional Features of Mortgage Markets in Europe
- 11. Financial Integration and Growth: Are They Related, and How?
- 12. Countercyclical Credit Risk Provisioning: The Spanish Experience
- 13. Cross-Border Financial Stability in the European Union: Where Do We Stand?
- 14. Migration and Economic Convergence in the New Member States
Key data tables and statistical series included
- European Countries: Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation, 2006-09
- European Countries: External and Fiscal Balances, Government Debt, 2006-09
- Response of Domestic Food and Energy Inflation to International Commodity Price Inflation Shocks
- Response of Core Inflation to Shocks to Domestic Food and Energy Price Inflation
- Emerging and Developing Europe: Policy Responses to Inflation Pressures
- Selected European Countries: Financial Conditions and Real Activity: Correlations and Variance Decompositions
- Increase in Volatility Due to a Rise in the Procyclicality of Lending with and without Financial Cross-Border Spillovers
- New Member States: Net Migration Rates, 1992-2007
- Largest Source Countries for Immigration in OECD European Countries, 2000 and 2005
- New Member States: Net Migration Rates by Age Cohorts, 2004-06
Figures and indicators highlighted
- Key Short-Term Indicators
- Europe and the United States: Real GDP Growth, 2001-09
- Estimating Shifts in the Global Price of Risk, 2007-08
- Spreads of Three-Month Interbank Rates over Expected Policy Rates, 2007-08
- Changes in Credit Standards for Loans and Lending to Enterprises, 2005-08
- Growth in Emerging Europe, 2004-09
- Inflation in Emerging Europe, 2004-09
- Emerging Europe: Annual Inflation Excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco
- Sovereign Spreads, July 25, 2007-September 16, 2008
- Emerging Europe EMBI+, January 2007-September 2008
- Metals, Food, and Oil Prices in Real Terms, 1960:Q1-2008:Q2
- Advanced and Emerging Europe: Contribution of Food and Fuel Price Increases to Headline Inflation
- Headline and Core Inflation, January 2004-August 2008
- Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area and the United Kingdom, 2001-08
- Labor Costs in the Euro Area, 2000:Q4-2008:Q2
- Core Inflation
- Inflation Expectations 12 Months Ahead, 2005-08
- Changes in Unit Labor Costs, 2005-07
- Wage Resistance and a Policy Error
- Flow of Borrowing in Selected EU Countries: Corporate and Household Sectors, 2002-06
- Corporate and Household Debt in Selected EU Countries, 2002-06
- Average Changes in Asset Prices, 2002-06
- Borrowing against Collateral in the Mortgage Market, 2002-06
- The Financial Accelerator in Economies Characterized by Different Borrowing Limits: Impulse Response Functions to an Adverse Shock to Underlying Productivity
- Financial Conditions Indices for the Corporate Sector: Dynamics and Contributions, 2003-08
- Share of Output Variation Explained by Credit and Asset Price Shocks
- Cyclicality of Lending and Sensitivity of Credit Growth to Changes in Asset Prices, 2003-08
- Cyclicality of Lending and Macroeconomic Volatility, 2003-08
- Measuring Risk Sharing across European Countries
- Measuring Cross-Border Financial Spillovers: Response of Financial Variable to a One-Standard-Error Reduction in U.S. Equity Prices
- Stability Gains from Reducing Cyclicality in Lending
- Residents from the NMS-8 in the EU-15, 2000-06
- Germany: Seasonal Migratory Workers, 1995-2007
- New Member States: Income per Capita Relative to EU-27, 2000 and 2007
- Simulated Developments in Productivity, Foreign Labor, Consumption, and Output
- Simulated Developments in Relative Prices, Current Account, Trade Balance, and Wages
- New Member States: Real Wage Developments, 2004-2008:Q1
- New Member States: Job Vacancy Rates, 2005-07
- Foreign Labor Developments with and without Overheating (Simulated)
- Impact of Bust on Foreign Labor (Simulated)
- New Member States: Employment Rate, 2000-07
- New Member States: Unemployment Rate, 2000-08
Regional Economic Outlook: Europe — Dealing with Shocks, October 2008 (table of contents and overview as presented on the IMF landing page).
Content in this bundle
- Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE, Faire face aux chocs, Octobre 2008 ' Résumé analytique
- Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, Dealing with Shocks, October 2008
- Regional Economic Outlook, Europe: Dealing with Shocks, October 2008
- Regionális Gazdasági Kilátások: EURÓPA — Megrázkódtatások kezelése
- Regiono ekonomikos apžvalga: EUROPA, Įveikiant šokus, 2008 m. spalis - Santrauka
- Перспективи розвитку регіональної економіки: ЄВРОПА
- Перспективы развития региональной экономики: Европа. Аналитическое резюме, октябрь 2008 года
- Перспективы развития региональной экономики: Европа. Преодоление шоков, октябрь 2008 года
- Perspectivas económicas regionales: EUROPA — Afrontar los shocks
References
- Press Release on the release of the European Regional Economic Outlook
- Regional Economic Outlooks
- IMF Regional Reports
- World Economic Outlook:
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