Inflation in Portugal: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Risks
Selected Issues Papers, July 10, 2023
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- Canonical URL
- Inflation in Portugal: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Risks
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Kamil Dybczak, Ippei Shibata
- Published: July 10, 2023
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247309.018
Authors and publication
- By Kamil Dybczak, Ippei Shibata
- July 10, 2023
- Selected Issues Paper No. 2023/044
- Pages: 20
- Volume: 2023
- Issue: 044
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247309.018
- Stock No: SIPEA2023044
- ISBN: 9798400247309
- ISSN: 2958-7875
Key findings and analysis
- Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low and often below the Euro Area average.
- Inflation accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022.
- An estimated Phillips curve regression for Portugal suggests inflation has been largely driven by:
- food price pressures, and
- external price pressures.
- The analysis finds similarities with other Euro Area countries in the drivers of inflation.
Projections
- Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting:
- receding energy prices, and
- anchored inflation expectations.
Risks and uncertainties
- Uncertainty remains high regarding the near-term inflation path.
- Inflation could remain elevated under the following scenarios highlighted in the paper:
- if the inflationary process became backward looking, or
- if wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Commodity prices, Energy prices, Inflation, International organization, Labor, Monetary policy, Oil prices, Prices, Wages
- Keywords: anchored inflation expectation, C. inflation projection, Commodity prices, Energy prices, Global, HICP inflation weight, Inflation, inflation in Portugal, oil prices, pass-through, second-round effects, wage-inflation spiral, wages
Source: Inflation in Portugal: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Risks (Selected Issues Papers 2023/044), IMF
Content in this bundle
- sipea2023044 - Sections 1–2