Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade

Selected Issues Papers, February 5, 2026

Source details

Indonesia is pursuing a broad push towards greater trade openness with regional and global partners to leverage external demand to reach high-income status by 2045.
Deeper trade integration, focusing on reducing non-tariff barriers, along with complementary structural reforms, can generate significant GDP gains for Indonesia.
Gains can arise from unilateral actions on reducing non-tariff barriers affecting imports and would be amplified by increasing market access in the context of trade agreements with major partners.
Structural reforms in other areas—such as human capital and logistics—can further enhance trade integration by reducing trade costs on their own and by helping Indonesia broaden comparative advantage across sectors.
An ambitious trade liberalization and structural reform program could make Indonesia "open for business" amid shifting global supply chains; resulting GVC-integration, supported by FDI, could drive gains beyond this paper’s estimates.
The analysis is positioned against ongoing trade policy shocks.

Prioritize reduction of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) affecting imports as a central trade policy action.
Pursue increased market access through trade agreements with major partners to amplify the gains from NTB reductions.
Implement complementary structural reforms in human capital and logistics to:
- Reduce trade costs directly.
- Broaden comparative advantage across sectors, enhancing the effectiveness of trade policy.
Aim for an integrated program of trade liberalization and structural reform to attract FDI and foster deeper GVC-integration.

Subject: Comparative advantage, Economic integration, International trade, Macrostructural analysis, Structural reforms, Trade integration, Trade policy
Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Comparative advantage, gains from trade, Global, IMF staff, Indonesia, International Trade, Non-tariff Measures, North America, reform scenario, Structural reforms, trade cost, Trade Integration, Trade policy, trade policy shock