Malta’s Growth-at-Risk: Exploring the Effects of Macro-Financial Factors on Growth
Selected Issues Papers, March 13, 2026
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Fuad Hasanov
- Published: March 13, 2026
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229041652.018
Overview
- Framework: Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework applied to Malta.
- Horizon: one-to-two-year horizon.
- General finding: Baseline outlook is positive, but notable tail risks exist.
Key findings
- Domestic tail risks:
- Large tail risks are associated with residential housing prices.
- Large tail risks are associated with household credit.
- External factors:
- External factors from the Euro Area are likely to have a smaller direct impact on Malta’s growth rate distribution.
- Transmission of Euro Area effects occurs through financial conditions in the bloc.
- Distributional focus:
- Analysis assesses impacts on the growth rate distribution rather than only on point forecasts.
Policy implications and considerations
- Monitor domestic housing market dynamics and household credit growth closely given their outsized contribution to downside growth risk.
- Strengthen macroprudential and financial-sector policies targeting household leverage and residential housing vulnerabilities.
- Track Euro Area financial conditions for indirect spillovers despite a smaller direct effect on Malta’s growth distribution.
Methodology and scope
- Approach: Growth-at-Risk framework linking macro-financial variables to future growth distribution.
- Geographic focus: Malta, with consideration of transmission from the Euro Area.
- Timeframe covered by projections: one-to-two-year horizon.
Subjects and keywords (as listed)
- Subject: Credit, Financial conditions index, Financial sector policy and analysis, Growth-at-risk assessment, Housing, Housing prices, Money, National accounts, Prices
- Keywords: Credit, credit growth, Europe, financial conditions, Financial conditions index, Financial factor, Financial vulnerabilities, Global, Growth-at-risk assessment, housing, Housing prices, IMF country, IMF staff, issues paper, macroprudential policy, Malta's Growth-at-Risk, systemic risk
Source: Malta’s Growth-at-Risk: Exploring the Effects of Macro-Financial Factors on Growth (Fuad Hasanov, March 13, 2026).
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