Demographic Headwinds: The Growth Impacts of Population Ageing in Mauritius

Selected Issues Papers, August 7, 2026

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Mauritius faces severe demographic pressures from population ageing, low fertility, and out-migration.
Using a growth decomposition framework, demographic factors shifted from supporting growth to weighing on it around 2017.
Demographics could reduce annual GDP growth by about 2 percentage points by 2070.
Relative to a counterfactual of unchanged demographics:
- GDP would be nearly 50 percent lower by 2070.
- GDP per capita would be about 28 percent lower by 2070.

Timing of shift: demographic factors moved from net support to net drag on growth around 2017.
Magnitude of impact through 2070:
- Annual GDP growth reduction: about 2 percentage points by 2070.
- Level comparisons to unchanged-demographics counterfactual:
- GDP: nearly 50 percent lower by 2070.
- GDP per capita: about 28 percent lower by 2070.
Partial mitigation: higher labor force participation among women, older workers, and youths can partly mitigate the demographic effects and improve debt dynamics, but cannot fully offset the demographic drag.

Labor market reforms are required to sustain growth and living standards.
Broader efforts to raise productivity are necessary to preserve fiscal sustainability and offset demographic headwinds.
Combined reforms should aim to:
- Increase labor force participation of women, older workers, and youths.
- Enhance productivity through structural policies and reforms.

Athene Laws, "Demographic Headwinds: The Growth Impacts of Population Ageing in Mauritius", Selected Issues Paper No. 2026/081, August 7, 2026.