A Toolkit to Assess the Consistency Between Real Sector and Financial Sector Forecasts
Technical Notes and Manuals, June 5, 2017
Source details
- Canonical URL
- A Toolkit to Assess the Consistency Between Real Sector and Financial Sector Forecasts
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Sophia Chen, Paola Ganum, Pau Rabanal
- Published: June 5, 2017
- Series: Technical Notes and Manuals
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484302798.005
Toolkit overview
- Objective: Develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts.
- Data coverage: 182 economies from 1980 to 2015.
- Authors: Sophia Chen, Paola Ganum, Pau Rabanal.
- Publication date: June 5, 2017.
- Publication series and identifiers:
- Technical Notes and Manuals No. 2017/009
- Issue: 009
- Volume: 2017
- Pages: 30
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484302798.005
- ISBN: 9781484302798
- ISSN: 2075-8669
Key empirical findings
- Credit growth and real sector performance:
- Credit growth is positively correlated with real sector performance.
- The positive correlation is particularly pronounced when credit growth is unusually high or low.
- Credit growth and inflation:
- The relationship between credit growth and inflation is weak.
- Robustness across country groups:
- Findings hold for advanced economies, emerging markets, and low-income countries.
Complementary indicators and null results
- Combining credit growth with other variables:
- Including house prices and the output gap alongside credit growth helps to understand real sector outcomes.
- Financial account balance:
- Including the financial account balance does not make a difference for explaining real sector outcomes.
Subjects and keywords (as provided)
- Subject: Credit, Economic sectors, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Financial sector, Housing prices, Money, Output gap, Prices, Production
- Keywords: asset price fluctuation, Comovement, Consistency, Credit, credit condition, credit growth, Emerging and frontier financial markets, equity price appreciation, Financial Forecasts, Financial sector, GDP growth, Global, house price growth, Housing prices, Macroeconomic Forecasts, Output gap, price, real GDP, TNM
A Toolkit to Assess the Consistency Between Real Sector and Financial Sector Forecasts — IMF (June 5, 2017).
Content in this bundle
- Executive Summary