Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth
IMF Working Papers, December 1, 1994
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- Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Michael Sarel
- Published: December 1, 1994
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451926880.001
Research objectives and approach
- Examine the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth.
- Four-step approach:
- Develop a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age.
- Use macroeconomic and demographic data to estimate the relative productivity of different age groups.
- Construct a panel database of effective labor supply to reflect the changing age-structure of the population.
- Decompose historical measured growth rates into effects of demographic dynamics and into “real” growth rates, net of demographic effects.
Model of production
- Labor productivity is modeled as age-dependent; the production model explicitly allows productivity to vary across age groups.
Empirical estimation
- Macroeconomic and demographic data are used to estimate the relative productivity (net productivity, productivity coefficient) of different age groups.
- Keywords associated with the empirical work include: Aging, database result, economic growth, Labor supply, net productivity, panel database, Productivity, productivity coefficient, United Nations data, WP.
Panel database of effective labor supply
- A panel database of effective labor supply is constructed to reflect changing age-structure of population across countries and over time.
Growth decomposition
- Historical measured growth rates are decomposed into:
- Effects attributable to demographic dynamics.
- “Real” growth rates net of demographic effects.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Aging, Expenditure, Labor, Labor supply, Population and demographics, Production, Productivity, Public expenditure review.
- Keywords: Aging, database result, economic growth, Labor supply, net productivity, panel database, Productivity, productivity coefficient, Public expenditure review, United Nations data, WP.