Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

ByUma Ramakrishnan, Athanasios Vamvakidis

June 1, 2002

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possible leading indicators of inflation. We identify the exchange rate, foreign inflation, and monetary growth as the main variables with a significant predictive power for inflation in Indonesia.

Subject: Consumer price indexes, Consumer prices, Exchange rate modelling, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Monetary base, Money, Prices

Keywords: consumer price index, Consumer price indexes, consumer price inflation, Consumer prices, exchange rate, Exchange rates, Indonesia, Inflation, inflation determinant, inflation effect, inflation forecasting, inflation index, inflation model, inflation process, Monetary base, WP

Pages:
23
Volume:
2002
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451853483.001
Issue:
111
Series:
Working Paper No. 2002/111
Stock No:
WPIEA1112002
ISBN:
9781451853483
ISSN:
1018-5941

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