Forecasting U.S. Investment

IMF Working Papers, November 1, 2010

Source details

The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010.
Consumption and particularly investment are expected to be important contributors to growth.
On the basis of several traditional models of investment, the authors forecast that U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period.
The contribution of investment to real GDP growth is forecast to be 0.8 percentage points on average over the 2010-12 period.

U.S. investment in equipment and software: grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period.
Contribution of investment to real GDP growth: 0.8 percentage points on average over the 2010-12 period.
Structural shift in growth drivers: from 2009 fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding to private demand in 2010, with investment a key component.

Forecasts are produced on the basis of several traditional models of investment.
Subjects covered: Capital productivity, Economic forecasting, Private investment, Vector autoregression, Vector error correction models.
Keywords included in the study: cost of capital, E&S, investment, ratio, real GDP, WP.

Timeframe of projection: 2010-12
Projected equipment and software investment growth: about 10 percent (average over 2010-12)
Projected contribution to real GDP growth from investment: 0.8 percentage points (average over 2010-12)
Pages: 33
Series: Working Paper No. 2010/246
Issue: 246
Volume: 2010
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455209460.001

Pau Rabanal, and Jaewoo Lee, "Forecasting U.S. Investment", IMF Working Papers 2010, 246 (2010), https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455209460.001

9. Real GDP Forecasts
- 9. Real GDP Forecasts (Markdown version)
- 9. Real GDP Forecasts (PDF)