Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries
IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2012
Source details
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- Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Yiqun Wu, Patrizia Tumbarello, Niamh Sheridan
- Published: June 1, 2012
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475504491.001
Research focus and methodology
- Objective: Gauge the impact of global and regional growth spillovers on Pacific Island countries (PICs).
- Method: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimated for each PIC.
- Scope: Analysis of growth spillovers and financial-sector spillovers from a deterioration of the global outlook.
Key findings and empirical results
- Regional integration of PICs with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades.
- PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles.
- Spillovers from regional economies are more important for PICs than spillovers from advanced economies outside the region.
- While strong linkages with Asia would help in the event of a global downturn, PICs remain particularly vulnerable to global commodity price shocks.
- The VECM analysis reveals that the impact on PICs’ growth from an adverse oil shock would be substantial, and in some cases even larger than from a negative global demand shock.
- The paper also assesses spillovers to the financial sector from the deterioration of the global outlook.
Policy implications and recommendations
- PICs should continue to rebuild policy buffers.
- PICs should implement growth-oriented structural reforms to ensure sustained and inclusive growth.
Publication and metadata
- Authors: Yiqun Wu, Patrizia Tumbarello, Niamh Sheridan
- Publication date: June 1, 2012
- Series: Working Paper No. 2012/154
- Issue: 154
- Pages: 41
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475504491.001
- ISBN: 9781475504491
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subjects: Balance of payments, Banking, Commercial banks, Commodities, Extra-budgetary funds, Financial institutions, Financial sector policy and analysis, Public financial management (PFM), Remittances, Spillovers
- Keywords: Australia and New Zealand, business cycle, Commercial banks, commodity, commodity exporter, commodity importer, commodity price, commodity prices, downside scenarios, Extra-budgetary funds, Global, IMF staff calculation, Pacific island country, Pacific islands, PIC importer, Remittances, spillover, Spillovers, WP
- Stock No: WPIEA2012154
- Volume: 2012
Source: "Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries", IMF Working Papers, accessed via https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/global-and-regional-spillovers-to-pacific-island-countries-25994
Content in this bundle
- _wp12154 - Executive Summary