Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Suriname
IMF Working Papers, July 10, 2014
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- Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Suriname
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Daniel S Kanda, Mario Mansilla
- Published: July 10, 2014
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498364614.001
Overview
- Authors: Daniel S Kanda, Mario Mansilla
- Publication date: July 10, 2014
- Core objective: Quantify natural resource wealth of Suriname from the perspective of its impact on the fiscal position; assess the fiscal sustainability gap in that context; present models for the optimal path of fiscal consolidation given the outlook for natural resource wealth, macroeconomic conditions, and country authority preferences.
- Scope: Fiscal sustainability and optimal consolidation for a resource-rich, commodity-exporting economy (Suriname).
Main findings and substantive points
- The paper quantifies natural resource wealth of Suriname specifically in terms of its impact on the fiscal position.
- It assesses the fiscal sustainability gap taking natural resource wealth into account.
- It presents models addressing the optimal fiscal consolidation path given:
- the outlook for natural resource wealth,
- macroeconomic conditions,
- country authority preferences.
Modeling approach and analytical themes
- Topics and technical elements explicitly featured:
- baseline projection
- commodity exporter context
- constraint method
- discount rate
- Fiscal stance and Fiscal Sustainability
- Fiscal Targets
- gold price and price projection
- Natural Resource Wealth and Non-renewable resources
- Output gap and sustainability gap
- Optimal Fiscal Consolidation
Policy implications and recommendations (as framed by the paper)
- Design fiscal consolidation paths that account for:
- projected natural resource wealth trajectories,
- prevailing macroeconomic conditions,
- the preferences and objectives of country authorities.
- Use model-based assessment to quantify the fiscal sustainability gap and to set appropriate fiscal targets for resource-rich countries.