Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth
IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2008
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- Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Shekhar Aiyar, Ivan Tchakarov
- Published: May 1, 2008
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451869989.001
Overview
- External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007.
- WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices.
- While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination.
- Authors: Shekhar Aiyar, Ivan Tchakarov
- Date: May 1, 2008
Methodology
- The paper uses a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth.
Key Findings and Projections
- A 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008—relative to the baseline forecast—could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points.
- External demand dynamics in 2006 and 2007 were central to Thai growth; projected moderation in 2008 foreign demand is a material risk factor.
Subjects and Keywords
- Subject: Exchange rates, Inflation, Output gap, Real exchange rates, Real interest rates
- Keywords: monetary policy, Phillips curve, WP