China Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence
IMF Working Papers, October 17, 2023
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- China Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Alexander Copestake, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri, Chris Redl
- Published: October 17, 2023
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400257353.001
Methodology
- Combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth.
- Use local projection models to assess responses to such shocks of GDP growth (country-level) and revenue (firm-level).
Key findings
- Both supply and demand slowdowns in China are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue.
- Negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China.
- Spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level.
Subjects and keywords
- Subjects: Consumption, Econometric analysis, Economic theory, Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, International trade, National accounts, Spillovers, Structural vector autoregression, Supply shocks
- Keywords: China spillover, China Spillovers, Consumption, Exports, Global, Spillovers, spillovers from demand shocks, Structural vector autoregression, supply and demand demand shock, supply and demand slowdown, Supply shocks, Supply-Demand Decomposition
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- Working Paper