Nowcasting Global Trade from Space
IMF Working Papers, May 16, 2025
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- Nowcasting Global Trade from Space
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Serkan Arslanalp, Seung Mo Choi, Parisa Kamali, Robin Koepke, Matthew McKetty, Michele Ruta, Mario Saraiva, Alessandra Sozzi, Jasper Verschuur
- Published: May 16, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009294.001
Summary
- Introduces a nowcasting model of global maritime trade leveraging satellite-based big data on vessel movements.
- Shipping accounts for about 80 percent of worldwide merchandise trade by volume.
- Approach mimics key features of statistical trade compilation: measure customs value of imports and exports first, form import and export price deflators, then estimate import and export volumes.
- Monthly nowcasts can be used to monitor fragmentation and regionalization in global maritime trade.
Methodological approach
- Uses port-level data from IMF PortWatch to obtain global and regional nowcasts.
- Mirrors the sequence used by statisticians:
- Measure customs value of imported and exported goods.
- Form import and export price deflators.
- Estimate import and export volumes.
Platform and data enhancements
- Highlights important enhancements to the IMF PortWatch platform since its beta launch in November 2023.
- Relies on satellite-based big data on vessel movements to provide timely indicators.
Applications and implications
- Provides a timely indicator of global trade flows, with potential use for monitoring:
- Fragmentation in maritime trade.
- Regionalization in maritime trade.
- Useful for nowcasting global and regional trade developments on a monthly frequency.
Publication and metadata
- Title: Nowcasting Global Trade from Space
- Authors: Serkan Arslanalp; Seung Mo Choi; Parisa Kamali; Robin Koepke; Matthew McKetty; Michele Ruta; Mario Saraiva; Alessandra Sozzi; Jasper Verschuur
- Date: May 16, 2025
- Series: Working Paper No. 2025/093
- Volume: 2025
- Issue: 093
- Pages: 37
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009294.001
- ISBN: 9798229009294
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Stock No: WPIEA2025093
- Subject tags: Commodities; Economic forecasting; Exports; Imports; International trade; Oil; Trade balance
- Keywords: big data; containerized trade; Europe; export price deflator; Exports; Global; IMF PortWatch; Imports; maritime trade; Middle East and Central Asia; Nowcasting; Oil; Trade balance; trade data; trade estimate; trade value
IMF Working Paper No. 2025/093, May 16, 2025.
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- Working Paper