Agricultural Distortions and International Migration
IMF Working Papers, November 7, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Agricultural Distortions and International Migration
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Braulio Britos, Manuel A. Hernandez, Danilo Trupkin
- Published: November 7, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229026314.001
Summary and research question
- International migration has grown rapidly over the past two decades.
- The paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study.
- Research approach: develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data.
Theoretical framework and methodology
- Household decision framework allowing three options for members: agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate.
- Calibration combines detailed micro and aggregate data (Guatemala as case study).
- Model identifies two key channels linking agricultural distortions to migration and productivity.
Key channels identified
- Channel 1: Distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity.
- Channel 2: Distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration.
Main quantitative findings
- Reducing distortions in the agricultural sector to the most efficient department in each region would:
- Lower the emigrant share by 2.3 percentage points, primarily among more productive workers.
- Boost aggregate agricultural productivity by 30.1%.
- Raise welfare by 3.4%.
Sub-national analysis
- High-distortion areas are more isolated.
- High-distortion areas exhibit less financial penetration and less government presence.
Subject tags and keywords (as presented)
- Subjects: Agricultural sector, Economic sectors, Migration, Population and demographics, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity
- Keywords: aggregate productivity, Agricultural distortions, Agricultural sector, Caribbean, Central America, Emigration, emigration pattern, IMF working papers, Labor mobility, Migration, migration share, Productivity, productivity channel, South America, Total factor productivity, Welfare
IMF Working Paper — "Agricultural Distortions and International Migration", Braulio Britos, Manuel A. Hernandez, and Danilo Trupkin, November 7, 2025.
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper