Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)
IMF Working Papers, February 13, 2026
Source details
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- Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Mustapha Abderrahim, Riad Mansouri, Fatma Zohra Ouail, Sara Abadi, Kenza Elkrim, Mohamed-Fariz Zidane, Philippe D Karam, Gyorgy Molnar, Karel Musil, Valeriu Nalban
- Published: February 13, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229038379.001
Model description
- QMPM is the Quarterly Projection Model developed for the Bank of Algeria and underpins the Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System.
- The model is designed to capture the economy’s key features, enabling model-based analytical exercises for policy analysis, forecasts, and risk scenarios.
Key features captured by the model
- Importance of the hydrocarbon sector.
- Sizable fiscal policy impacts.
- Monetary-fiscal interactions.
- A monetary aggregate targeting policy framework.
- A managed exchange rate regime.
Analytical findings and model performance
- AMPM displays theoretical consistency.
- AMPM shows a robust data fit.
- Model-based analytical exercises confirm AMPM’s practicality for:
- Real-time policy analysis.
- Forecasting.
- Risk scenario analysis to support the Bank of Algeria’s policy processes.
Policy relevance and applications
- Supports the Bank of Algeria’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System.
- Suited for analyzing interactions between fiscal policy, monetary policy, and exchange rate management in an economy with a dominant hydrocarbon sector.
- Practical tool for conducting real-time assessments and scenario-based policy deliberations.
Source: IMF Working Paper "Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)", February 13, 2026.
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper