For more information, see Republic of Yemen and the IMF

Yemen Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility
Medium-Term Economic and Financial Policy Framework Paper 1999-2001

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Contents

Tables

Table 2. Republic of Yemen: Selected Economic Indicators, 1995-2001

          Est.            Projections          
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

  (Change in percent)
Production and prices              
   Nominal GDP at market prices 66.6 46.3 13.0 -1.6 14.9 12.9 10.8
   Real GDP at market prices 8.6 5.6 5.2 2.7 5.3 4.0 4.5
   Real non-oil GDP 7.3 4.1 5.3 3.0 4.2 5.0 5.5
   Real oil GDP 15.3 13.5 4.7 1.2 10.4 -0.5 0.0
   Consumer price index (annual average) 62.5 27.3 6.3 11.1 9.2 7.0 6.0
   Crude oil price
      (weighted average, US$ per barrel)
16.9 20.3 18.5 11.9 12.0 13.1 13.3
               
  (In percent of GDP)
Government finance              
   Total revenue and grants 21.3 38.4 37.7 30.4 31.1 32.4 32.1
      Oil revenue 10.4 27.2 25.8 16.2 16.6 17.8 17.3
      Non-oil revenue 10.6 11.0 11.3 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.1
      Grants 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7
   Total expenditure 25.5 41.9 40.0 36.8 35.2 35.3 34.4
      Current 22.2 34.8 32.2 30.8 28.0 27.4 26.5
      Development 3.4 7.1 7.8 6.0 7.2 7.9 7.9
   Overall balance incl. grants (cash basis) -3.2 -1.6 -0.9 -6.0 -4.0 -2.7 -2.2
               
  (12-month change in percent of initial broad money)
Monetary data              
   Broad money 20.4 8.6 10.7 11.7 8.0 ... ...
   Credit to nongovernment sector 3.7 -4.1 4.3 3.8 5.4 ... ...
   Benchmark deposit interest rate 20.0 25.0 11.0 15.0 ... ... ...
   Velocity (Non-oil GDP/average M2) 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 ... ...
               
  (In millions of U.S. dollars)
External sector              
Exports, f.o.b., of which: 1,980 2,263 2,264 1,517 1,703 1,840 1,858
      Crude oil 1,735 1,976 1,935 1,231 1,389 1,498 1,490
   Imports, f.o.b. -1,831 -2,294 -2,407 2,203 2,261 -2,385 -2,462
   Services (net) -460 -370 -432 -393 -381 -388 -378
   Private remittances and transfers (net) 1,104 1,123 1,571 1,191 1,211 1,230 1,279
   Capital account (net) -826 -397 10 -263 46 4 203
   Overall balance -553 -393 139 -471 -101 -136 60
               
   Central Bank own gross foreign reserves 525 937 1,152 850 1,001 1,088 1,099
      In months of imports 1 3.2 4.6 5.3 4.2 4.8 5.0 4.9
   Current account, incl. grants (in percent of GDP) 4.0 1.9 0.4 -5.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.3
   Debt service ratios (government) 2              
      Before rescheduling 38.6 33.0 13.6 17.5 15.5 12.5 9.7
   After rescheduling ... ... 3.7 6.8 7.5 5.1 5.1
   Official external debt              
      Before rescheduling 8,924 9,085 4,490 4,703 5,027 5,244 5,306
         (In percent of GDP) 184.0 161.5 78.4 88.2 92.4 90.4 86.7
      After rescheduling ... ... 3,924 3,730 3,962 4,127 4,189
         (In percent of GDP) ... ... 68.5 69.9 72.8 71.2 68.4
               
   Terms of trade (1996=100) 85.3 100.0 100.7 71.9 71.5 76.5 76.4
   Exchange rate (free market, eop) (YRl/US$) 127.1 126.9 130.5 141.7 ... ... ...
   Real effective exchange rate (1996=100) 3 75.9 100.0 111.7 117.4 ... ... ...
               
Sources: Yemeni authorities; Fund staff estimates and projections.

1/ Excludes commercial bank foreign exchange deposits held with the central bank. Imports are for the current year and exclude oil and gas sector imports.
2/ Public- and publicly-guaranteed debt including central bank foreign liabilities. In percent of exports of goods and services.
3/ Based on free market rate.


Table 3. Republic of Yemen: Income and Social Indicators, 1995-2001


  Unit of               Program      
  Measure 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Population                
   Population (mid-year) Million 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8
   Urban Population Percent 33.6 34.4 ... ... ... ... ...
   Population growth Percent 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
   Total fertility rate Percent 7.4 7.2 ... ... ... ... ...
                 
Income                
   GNP per capita US$ 260 324 354 321 319 332 341
   Consumer price index (December 1994=100) 161 211 222 ... ... ... ...
   Food price index (December 1994=100) 150 194 201 ... ... ... ...
                 
Social indicators                
   Share of public expenditure Percent of GDP              
      Health   ... 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8
      Education   ... 3.6 5.3 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3
      Social safety net   ... 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.4
   Net primary school enrollment rate Percent of age group              
      Total   76 ... ... ... ... ... ...
      Male   112 ... ... ... ... ... ...
      Female   37 ... ... ... ... ... ...
   Access to safe water Percent of population              
      Total   52 ... ... ... ... ... ...
      Urban   88 ... ... ... ... ... ...
      Rural   ... ... ... ... ... ...
   Immunization rate under 12 months Percent              
      Measles   49 ... ... ... ... ... ...
      DPT   52 ... ... ... ... ... ...
   Child (under 5) malnutrition rate Percent 30 ... ... ... ... ... ...
   Life expectancy at birth Years              
      Total   53 54 ... ... ... ... ...
      Male   53 54 ... ... ... ... ...
      Female   54 54 ... ... ... ... ...
   Infant mortality rate Per 1,000 live births 100 98 ... ... ... ... ...
   Under 5 mortality rate Per 1,000 live births 145 130 ... ... ... ... ...
   Maternal mortality ratio Per 100,000 live births 1,471 ... ... ... ... ... ...
                 
Sources: Yemeni authorities; World Bank; and Fund staff estimates.


Table 4. Republic of Yemen: External Financing Requirements, 1995-2003 1

          ESAF/EFF Program          
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

  (In millions of U.S. dollars)  
                   
Gross external financing requirement -173 -197 -6,398 -410 -1,490 -465 -373 -376 -345
                   
   Own current account (excluding interest
      obligations, official grants, and oil company
         transactions)
80 -89 -147 -493 -444 -460 -450 -451 -461
   Interest obligations -144 -122 -97 -66 -74 -54 -54 -60 -65
   Amortization obligations -747 -659 -232 -224 -207 -177 -124 -116 -101
   Foreign oil companies' transactions, net 0 190 37 32 66 61 44 44 47
   Oil sector trade credits and loans, net -33 -64 64 23 -6 10 15 12 -1
   Private capital, net 50 80 245 150 234 245 255 265 270
   Wheat import financing, net 68 167 -79 -187 0 -103 0 0 0
   Net reserves buildup (-) (excluding AMF and
      IMF purchases and repurchases)
-192 -148 -155 360 126 104 -118 -91 -51
   Net AMF purchases 7 1 8 -11 17 -3 -10 -3 0
   Net IMF purchases 0 121 139 71 143 95 -47 -18 -18
   Change in overdue obligations 751 568 -5,886 54 -1,025 0 0 0 0
      Late interest charges, of which: ... ... -561 0 0 0 0 0 0
         Russian Federation ... ... -542 0 0 0 0 0 0
                   
Regular financing 93 206 243 226 281 266 272 255 286
   Grants 40 68 91 64 102 107 113 119 124
   Loans 53 138 152 162 178 159 160 136 162
      Of which: IDA (pipeline)   95 89 120 117 60 18 5 17
                   
Errors and omissions 80 -102 107 67 0 0 0 0 0
                   
Exceptional Financing, of which: 0 93 6,048 117 1,209 199 138 156 82
                   
   Secured debt relief 0 93 6,048 117 85 85 38 36 24
   IDA (new) 2 0 0 0 0 50 74 100 120 58
   Pending debt relief 3 0 0 0 0 1,074 39 0 0 0
                   
                   
Sources: Central Bank of Yemen; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

1/ Incorporates the November 1997 Paris Club rescheduling.
2/ Includes the budget management loan of $50 million for 1999, and other expected balance of payment support for outer years.
3/ Under the assumption that non-Paris Club creditors would provide debt relief on at least comparable terms as the 1997 Paris Club rescheduling.

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