How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?

Author/Editor: Marco Terrones ; M. Ayhan Kose ; Stijn Claessens
Publication Date: April 01, 2011
Electronic Access: Free Full text (PDF file size is 1,056KB).
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.
Series: Working Paper No. 11/88
Subject(s): Economic models | Economic recession | Economic recovery | Financial sector

Author's Keyword(s): Credit crunches | asset busts | booms | recessions | recoveries | financial crises.
Publication Date: April 01, 2011
ISBN/ISSN: 9781455233168/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2011088 Pages: 54
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
US$18.00 )
Please address any questions about this title to