Predicting Recessions : A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations

Author/Editor: Turgut Kisinbay ; Chikako Baba
Publication Date: October 01, 2011
Electronic Access: Free Full text (PDF file size is 1,241KB).
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data shows that forecasts obtained from the algorithm are consistently among the best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are reasonable and consistent with the standard leading indicators followed by many observers of business cycles. The suggested algorithm has several advantages, including wide applicability and objective variable selection.
Series: Working Paper No. 11/235
Subject(s): Economic forecasting | Economic indicators | Economic recession | Forecasting models

Author's Keyword(s): business cycles | leading indicators | forecast encompassing | forecast combination
Publication Date: October 01, 2011
ISBN/ISSN: 9781463922016/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2011235 Pages: 30
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
US$18.00 )
Please address any questions about this title to