Systemic Real and Financial Risks: Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial health; (b) stress-tests as measures of the dynamics of responses of systemic risk indicators to structural shocks identified by standard macroeconomic and banking theory. Using a large number of quarterly time series of the G-7 economies in 1980Q1-2010Q2, we show that the model exhibits significant out-of sample forecasting power for tail real and financial risk realizations, and that stress testing provides useful early warnings on the build-up of real and financial vulnerabilities.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2012/058
Subject:
Bank credit Financial institutions Financial sector policy and analysis Loans Money Stress testing Systemic risk Systemic risk assessment
English
Publication Date:
February 1, 2012
ISBN/ISSN:
9781463937768/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2012058
Pages:
41
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