Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus : An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

Author/Editor: Serhan Cevik ; Mohammad Rahmati
Publication Date: January 04, 2013
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce an estimated risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a tendency to relapse into subsequent conflicts even years after the cessation of violence. The empirical results show that domestic factors, including the estimated probability of conflict recurrence, as well as a range of external variables, contribute to post-conflict economic performance.
Series: Working Paper No. 13/2
Subject(s): Transition economies | External shocks | Developing countries | Economic growth | Economic models

Publication Date: January 04, 2013
ISBN/ISSN: 9781475531152/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2013002 Pages: 49
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