The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure

Author/Editor: Michal Andrle ; Roberto Garcia-Saltos ; Giang Ho
Publication Date: October 29, 2013
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imposing powerful but uncontroversial assumptions that allow us to identify how external factors affect the evolution of business cycles in Poland in the period 1999-2012. Our results suggest that developments in the euro zone can explain about 50 percent of poland’s output and interest rate business cycle variance and about 25 percent of the variance of inflation.
Series: Working Paper No. 13/220
Subject(s): External shocks | Poland | Business cycles | Inflation | Interest rates | Exchange rates | Economic models

Publication Date: October 29, 2013
ISBN/ISSN: 9781484337172/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2013220 Pages: 22
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
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