| Foreword - Preface - Executive Summary |
|
| I |
Introduction |
| |
References |
|
| II |
Taking Stock |
| |
Main Economic and Social Outcomes |
| |
Explaining the Outcomes |
| |
Conclusion |
| |
References |
|
| III |
Fiscal Sustainability |
|
Lack of Short-Term Policy Constraints |
|
Common Fragilities |
|
Underlying Weaknesses |
|
Fiscal Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges |
|
References |
|
| IV |
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes |
|
Overview |
|
Alternative Approaches to Monetary Stabilization |
|
Macroeconomic Impact of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization Plans |
|
Effects on Other Elements of Reform Programs |
| |
Exit and Regime Change |
| |
Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges |
| |
References |
|
| V |
Latin American Financial Systems: Crises and Reforms |
|
Key Characteristics of Latin American Financial Systems |
| |
Underlying Weaknesses |
| |
Banking Crises and Reforms |
| |
Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges |
|
References |
|
| VI |
Financial Dollarization in Latin America |
|
Causes |
| |
Managing the Risks |
| |
Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges |
|
References |
|
| VII |
External Vulnerabilities |
|
Disappointing Outcomes of Trade Liberalization |
|
Capital Flows to Latin America |
| |
Low Trade Shares and Volatile Capital Flows Amplified Vulnerabilities |
| |
Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges |
|
References |
|
| VIII |
Lessons and Priorities for Future Agenda |
|
Looking Back |
|
Disappointments |
| |
Explanatory Factors |
|
Priorities for Future Agenda |
| |
IMF Role: Supporting Growth Agendas |
|
References |
|
| Boxes |
| 2.1. |
Latin America: Labor Market Reforms |
| 2.2. |
Latin America: Impediments to Business Activity and Growth |
| 3.1. |
Chile’s Fiscal Consolidation in 1990s |
| 3.2. |
Tax Amnesties in Argentina |
| 3.3. |
Infrastructure Spending and Growth in Latin America |
| 4.1. |
Exchange Rate Experience in Central America |
| 4.2. |
Cyclical Impact of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization Plans |
| 5.1. |
Finance for Growth: Experiences in Chile and Mexico |
| 5.2. |
Do Brazilian Banks Compete? |
| 5.3. |
Taxation of Financial Transactions in Latin America |
| 5.4. |
Vulnerabilities from Offshore Banking |
| 5.5. |
Cross-Border Financial Integration: Banking in Central
America |
| 7.1. |
NAFTA: Benefits and Challenges |
|
| Tables |
| ES1. |
Latin America: Policy Indicators, 1992 and 2002 |
| ES2. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Real Per Capita GDP, 1998–2003 |
| ES3. |
Latin America: Incidence of Poverty |
| ES4. |
Selected Latin America Countries: Total Change in Public Infrastructure
Spending, 1990 to 2000 |
| ES5. |
Selected Latin American Counties: Foreign Exchange Deposits |
| 2.1. |
International Comparison: Growth in Real Per Capita GDP |
| 2.2. |
Real Per Capita GDP, 1998–2003 |
| 2.3. |
Consequences of Crisis: Current Account Adjustment |
| 2.4. |
Latin America: Incidence of Poverty |
| 2.5. |
IMF Arrangements in Latin America, 1989–2004 |
| 2.6. |
International Comparison: Corruption Perception Index |
| 3.1. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Composition of Public Debt,
2000 |
| 3.2. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Real Effective Exchange Rates
and Foreign Currency Debt |
| 3.3. |
Selected Latin American Countries: General Government
Tax Revenues |
| 3.4. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Value-Added-Tax (VAT)
Revenue Productivity |
| 3.5. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Cost of Tax Collection, 1998 |
| 3.6. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Earmarked Spending, 2002 |
| 3.7. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Estimates of Implicit
Pension Debt in 1990s |
| 4.1. |
Monetary Stabilization Plans: Objectives and Timing |
| 4.2. |
Pre- and Post-Stabilization Inflation and Exchange
Rate Developments |
| 4.3. |
Latin America: Increases in Central Bank Independence |
| 5.1. |
International Comparison: Financial Systems, 2003 |
| 5.2. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Structure of Banking
Systems |
| 5.3. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Assets and Loans of
Public Banks |
| 5.4. |
International Comparison: Bank Performance Indicators |
| 5.5. |
Three Latin American Countries: Bankruptcy Frameworks |
| 5.6. |
Latin America: Fiscal Costs of Banking Crises in 1990s |
| 6.1. |
Dollarization Indicators, 2001 |
| 6.2. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Deposit and Loan
Dollarization |
| 6.3. |
Selected Latin American Countries with Low Dollarization:
Risk-Management Arrangements |
| 6.4. |
Latin America: Offshore Deposits |
| 6.5. |
Selected Highly Dollarized Latin American Countries:
Risk-Management Arrangements |
| 7.1. |
Latin America: Regional Integration Initiatives, 1990–Present |
| 7.2. |
International Comparison: Export Performance in Latin
America and Asia |
|
| Figures |
| ES1. |
Latin America: Inflation |
| ES2. |
Four Latin American Countries: Public Debt |
| ES3. |
Four Latin American Countries: Real Effective Exchange Rates |
| ES4. |
International Comparison: Exports of Goods and Services |
| 2.1. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Inflation Performance |
| 2.2. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Growth Performance |
| 2.3. |
Latin America: Real GDP |
| 2.4. |
Selected Latin American and Asian Countries: Per Capita
Incomes Compared with United States, 1950–2000 |
| 2.5. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Output Volatility |
| 2.6. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Consequences of Crisis for
Real GDP Growth |
| 2.7. |
Latin America: Incidence of Poverty and Extreme Poverty |
| 2.8. |
Latin America: Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction,
1990–2001 |
| 2.9. |
Global Indicators |
| 2.10. |
Emerging Market Spreads |
| 2.11. |
Latin America: Emerging Market Bond Spreads |
| 2.12. |
Latin America: IMF-Supported Arrangements |
| 2.13. |
Latin America: Contribution of Reforms to Economic Growth |
| 2.14. |
Latin America: Structural Reform Indices |
| 2.15. |
International Comparison: Per Capita Income and
Governance, 2000 |
| 2.16. |
Latin America: Governance Ratings, 1985–2001 |
| 2.17. |
International Comparison: Governance Indicators, 2001 |
| 3.1. |
International Comparison: Government Net Debt, 1996 |
| 3.2. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Public Sector Balances |
| 3.3. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Public Debt |
| 3.4. |
International Comparison: Cyclical Sensitivity of Primary
Balance |
| 3.5. |
Brazil: Composition of Spending |
| 3.6. |
Selected Latin American Countries: General Government
Expenditure on Wages and Infrastructure |
| 3.7. |
Brazil: Public Sector Primary Balance |
| 3.8. |
Argentina: “Fiscal Skeletons” and Primary Balance |
| 3.9. |
Argentina: “Fiscal Skeletons” and Public Debt Paths |
| 4.1. |
Latin America: Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, 1980–2001 |
| 4.2. |
Latin America: Exchange Rate Developments |
| 4.3. |
Inflation Under Alternative Stabilization Plans |
| 4.4. |
Latin America: Real Effective Exchange Rates |
| 4.5. |
Inflation Targeting in Latin America |
| 5.1. |
Latin America: Boom and Bust in Credit Growth |
| 5.2. |
Interest Spread in Latin America |
| 5.3. |
Comparative Savings and Loan Ratios in Mid-1990s |
| 5.4. |
Strength of Financial Regulatory Environment in Selected
Countries |
| 6.1. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Deposit Dollarization and
Inflation, 1990–2001 |
| 6.2. |
Real Interest Rates in Selected Highly Dollarized Countries |
| 6.3. |
Real Interest Rates in Non-Dollarized Countries |
| 6.4. |
Public Sector Deficits in Highly Dollarized Countries |
| 6.5. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Inflation and Real Bilateral
Exchange Rate Volatility, 1990–2002 |
| 6.6. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Reserve Coverage of
Foreign Currency Deposits |
| 7.1. |
Trade and Financial Integration Across Developing
Regions, 1975–99 |
| 7.2. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Average Tariffs |
| 7.3. |
International Comparison: Exports of Goods and Services |
| 7.4. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Trade Openness, 2002 |
| 7.5. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Herfindahl Index for
Exports |
| 7.6. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Commodity Exports |
| 7.7. |
Latin America: Net Private Capital Flows |
| 7.8. |
Selected Latin American Countries: Net Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) Flows |
| 7.9. |
International Comparison: External Debt |
| 7.10. |
Selected Latin American Countries: External Debt, 2000 |
|